Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Swap spreads narrowed late last week by three basis points across the curve, likely influenced by developments in European markets</li><li>French President Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections has caused uncertainty in the fiscal outlook, leading to de-risking of European sovereign bond holdings</li><li>While last week's moves in US markets were significant, it is unlikely to continue as US treasuries are expected to remain stable and demand is expected to stay strong, supported by the rate cycle turning and potential easing from the Fed</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Swap spreads narrowed late last week by three basis points across the curve, likely influenced by developments in European marketsFrench President Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections has caused uncertainty in the fiscal outlook, leading to de-risking of European sovereign bond holdingsWhile last week's moves in US markets were significant, it is unlikely to continue as US treasuries are expected to remain stable and demand is expected to stay strong, supported by the rate cycle turning and potential easing from the FedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

<ul><li>Expectation of a 25 basis point cut from the ECB with a focus on delivering on that commitment</li><li>Market pricing in an incomplete cutting cycle, with potential for further easing depending on inflation dynamics</li><li>Long duration valuations attractive in both short and intermediate sectors of the curve, with limited risk of a significant sell-off.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Expectation of a 25 basis point cut from the ECB with a focus on delivering on that commitmentMarket pricing in an incomplete cutting cycle, with potential for further easing depending on inflation dynamicsLong duration valuations attractive in both short and intermediate sectors of the curve, with limited risk of a significant sell-off.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our now-cast series on EUR-flation.</li><li>We have been banging the drum on dovish surprises in the Euro area for a while, but there are signs of upside risks in April inflation numbers from our price observations made through the month.</li><li>Especially German inflation could surprise on the sticky/high side of consensus.Our overall now-cast projections lean around 0.1%-points above consensus for April.</li></ul>

Welcome to our now-cast series on EUR-flation.We have been banging the drum on dovish surprises in the Euro area for a while, but there are signs of upside risks in April inflation numbers from our price observations made through the month.Especially German inflation could surprise on the sticky/high side of consensus.Our overall now-cast projections lean around 0.1%-points above consensus for April.

EUR-flation Watch: April is hot (in inflation terms)

<ul><li>Before getting to the financial word, I just briefly want to reiterate that we find a de-escalation most likely between Iran and Israel after the events unfolding over the weekend.</li><li>Our head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, released his take earlier.</li><li>Quote of the week: Iran’s Chief of Staff: “Our attack is over, and we do not wish to continue it, but we will respond forcefully if Israel targets our interests.</li></ul>

Before getting to the financial word, I just briefly want to reiterate that we find a de-escalation most likely between Iran and Israel after the events unfolding over the weekend.Our head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, released his take earlier.Quote of the week: Iran’s Chief of Staff: “Our attack is over, and we do not wish to continue it, but we will respond forcefully if Israel targets our interests.

Steno Signals #95 – Is the Next Move a Hike?

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Global Rates: Pardon my French

In summary, swap spreads narrowed due to European market effects, French elections caused uncertainty, US treasury cheapened versus swaps, but...

At Any Rate

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets

The upcoming meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point cut, with increases in core inflation projections for 2025 and potentially...

At Any Rate

EUR-flation Watch: April is hot (in inflation terms)

Welcome to our now-cast series on EUR-flation. We have been banging the drum on dovish surprises in the Euro area for a while, but there are signs...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #95 – Is the Next Move a Hike?

Before getting to the financial word, I just briefly want to reiterate that we find a de-escalation most likely between Iran and Israel after the...

Steno Research

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