Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on Friday</li><li>ECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currencies</li><li>Revision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strength</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on FridayECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currenciesRevision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off.</li><li>End of discussion.</li><li>Rents, energy-tariffs / network-prices and a few wage heavy service categories continue to keep February inflation numbers elevated, albeit substantially lower than in 2023, and our nowcasts suffer a bit from changes in lead/lags on especially wage heavy categories.</li></ul>

We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off.End of discussion.Rents, energy-tariffs / network-prices and a few wage heavy service categories continue to keep February inflation numbers elevated, albeit substantially lower than in 2023, and our nowcasts suffer a bit from changes in lead/lags on especially wage heavy categories.

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

<ul><li>If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with M2 nominally trending almost 4 trillion USDs above a long-term trajectory.</li><li>The similar trend in EURs is much less extraordinary with M2 currently 7% above trend, which translates to a little more than 1 trillion EURs nominally.</li><li>There is still a large excess of USDs in the systemSo where are those excess USDs parked?</li></ul>

If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with M2 nominally trending almost 4 trillion USDs above a long-term trajectory.The similar trend in EURs is much less extraordinary with M2 currently 7% above trend, which translates to a little more than 1 trillion EURs nominally.There is still a large excess of USDs in the systemSo where are those excess USDs parked?

Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.</li><li>A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.</li><li>As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.</li><li>Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.</li><li>Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Perks Up on Sticky Inflation Signs

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

Chair Powell will deliver testimony to Congress, February employment data will be released, the ECB will make a decision, and Mira Chandan will...

At Any Rate

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off. End of discussion. Rents, energy-tariffs /...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed

If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with...

Steno Research

Forex Medium-Term Outlook(Feb, 2024)

A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling

Mizuho

FX Daily - JPY Perks Up on Sticky Inflation Signs

The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all...

Scotiabank

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)