Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border.</li><li>The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians.</li><li>In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.</li></ul>

Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border.The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians.In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.

Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Greetings from Europe! The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and major tradeable themes for the week ahead.</li><li>We see a couple of major tradeable themes in the week(s) ahead.</li><li>First, the Euro area data, which is still improving in forward-looking indicators, while spot data remains relatively soft, probably in part due to a plethora of (potential) election risks.</li></ul>

Greetings from Europe! The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and major tradeable themes for the week ahead.We see a couple of major tradeable themes in the week(s) ahead.First, the Euro area data, which is still improving in forward-looking indicators, while spot data remains relatively soft, probably in part due to a plethora of (potential) election risks.

The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Data dependency is the name of the game, as central banks ponder their next steps.</li><li>We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall further.</li><li>The ECB started its rate cuts this month, the Fed didn’t, but both central banks have made it clear that they remain in a data-dependent mode and have not given clear signals about what will happen at the next few meetings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Data dependency is the name of the game, as central banks ponder their next steps.We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall further.The ECB started its rate cuts this month, the Fed didn’t, but both central banks have made it clear that they remain in a data-dependent mode and have not given clear signals about what will happen at the next few meetings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major forecasts: It’s all data dependent

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial.</li><li>It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for global inflation expectations.</li><li>Our live assessment of the Chinese recovery continues to paint a stalling picture in Real Estate, exemplified by the physical copper demand being on the edge of a precipice, while the pollution based metrics hint of a continued surge in industrial production into June.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial.It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for global inflation expectations.Our live assessment of the Chinese recovery continues to paint a stalling picture in Real Estate, exemplified by the physical copper demand being on the edge of a precipice, while the pollution based metrics hint of a continued surge in industrial production into June.

EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Swap spreads narrowed late last week by three basis points across the curve, likely influenced by developments in European markets</li><li>French President Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections has caused uncertainty in the fiscal outlook, leading to de-risking of European sovereign bond holdings</li><li>While last week's moves in US markets were significant, it is unlikely to continue as US treasuries are expected to remain stable and demand is expected to stay strong, supported by the rate cycle turning and potential easing from the Fed</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Swap spreads narrowed late last week by three basis points across the curve, likely influenced by developments in European marketsFrench President Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for snap elections has caused uncertainty in the fiscal outlook, leading to de-risking of European sovereign bond holdingsWhile last week's moves in US markets were significant, it is unlikely to continue as US treasuries are expected to remain stable and demand is expected to stay strong, supported by the rate cycle turning and potential easing from the FedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?

Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game. We have a lot of current geopolitical events to cover, so let’s get to it!Israel and Hezbollah headed...

Steno Research

The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?

Greetings from Europe!The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and...

Steno Research

Major forecasts: It’s all data dependent

We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall...

Nordea

EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?

Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial. It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for...

Steno Research

Global Rates: Pardon my French

In summary, swap spreads narrowed due to European market effects, French elections caused uncertainty, US treasury cheapened versus swaps, but...

At Any Rate

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