External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD ended last week on the defensive but a little off the early week low.</li><li>Still, the DXY closed out the week at its lowest since mid-August and below the 50– and 100-week MA as well as the 50% retracement support of the July/October rally.</li><li>The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as investors adjust to the USD’s reduced growth and yield advantages. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD ended last week on the defensive but a little off the early week low.Still, the DXY closed out the week at its lowest since mid-August and below the 50– and 100-week MA as well as the 50% retracement support of the July/October rally.The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as investors adjust to the USD’s reduced growth and yield advantages. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around 1.0960 resistance earlier in the session and drifted off its best levels.</li><li>The JPY is the topperforming currency among the core majors on the day, racking up a 0.5% gain and rising to a two-month high.</li><li>Growing conviction that the Fed rate tightening cycle is complete, and that the next move from the Fed will be a cut, is supporting a rebound in the very depressed JPY. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around 1.0960 resistance earlier in the session and drifted off its best levels.The JPY is the topperforming currency among the core majors on the day, racking up a 0.5% gain and rising to a two-month high.Growing conviction that the Fed rate tightening cycle is complete, and that the next move from the Fed will be a cut, is supporting a rebound in the very depressed JPY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Losses May Moderate in Short Term

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.</li><li>Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.</li><li>That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.</li><li>First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.</li><li>ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.</li></ul>

Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of speculative sentiment and positioning shows traders were generally more bullish on the USD in the week through Tuesday.</li><li>The USD has just had one of its worst weeks since the summer, however, so the positive sentiment reflected in these data may not be sustained.</li><li>The CFTC numbers show Non-Commercial (speculative) traders lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn in the week to a new high for the bull cycle of USD10.5bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of speculative sentiment and positioning shows traders were generally more bullish on the USD in the week through Tuesday.The USD has just had one of its worst weeks since the summer, however, so the positive sentiment reflected in these data may not be sustained.The CFTC numbers show Non-Commercial (speculative) traders lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn in the week to a new high for the bull cycle of USD10.5bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Boost Bullish USD Bets

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

FX Daily - Soft USD Trend Set to Extend

The USD retains a weak undertone to start the new week and continued USD softness looks the main risk for markets in the near-term at least as...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Losses May Moderate in Short Term

The USD is trading softer again overall on the session so far but the DXY is trading a little above its intraday low after EURUSD peaked around...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Retains a Soft Undertone

Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the...

Scotiabank

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management as the seasonal...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Boost Bullish USD Bets

The latest snapshot of speculative sentiment and positioning shows traders were generally more bullish on the USD in the week through Tuesday.

Scotiabank

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