FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion.

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from.  A more prolonged crisis appears likely.  Trump is pursuing his hard-line on trade; announcing plans to move ahead with tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on investments and trade in the high tech sector.  It wasn’t so long ago that global investor confidence was buoyed by solid synchronized global growth. And yields were rising on firming commodity prices, tightening labour markets, fiscal expansion, rate rises in the US and some other economies, and anticipation that the ECB would end QE in September and begin hikes in 2019.  Fears over populist policy trends were receding.  They are back with a vengeance. Populist policies that threaten regional and global cooperation are driving up risk aversion. 

Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact emphasises both the importance of cross-border flows (viz. the recent example of Argentina) and the need for domestic monetary policy discipline (viz. the more recent example of Turkey). Both are connected since policy-makers are sensitive to capital flows. A statistical analysis of the factors that drive EM crises singles-out the impact cross-border…

A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact emphasises both the importance of cross-border flows (viz. the recent example of Argentina) and the need for domestic monetary policy discipline (viz. the more recent example of Turkey). Both are connected since policy-makers are sensitive to capital flows. A statistical analysis of the factors that drive EM crises singles-out the impact cross-border…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

In line with previous reports such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a12deeb5-d34b-45b2-b9c2-ffc017d9f1c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2901">This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-calling-dollar-rally-set-to-continue-on-real-yields-positioning-policy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19039">Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to Continue on Real Yields, Positioning, Policy</a>, this Quick Note is meant as a challenge to the view that the US dollar (USD) rally - and EM decline - may be over soon.DebtAccording to a recent Fitch report as reported by newswires, outstanding debt securities from 'developing nations' have spiked to USD 19trn from USD 5trn a decade earlier. Despite the…

In line with previous reports such as This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown and Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to Continue on Real Yields, Positioning, Policy, this Quick Note is meant as a challenge to the view that the US dollar (USD) rally - and EM decline - may be over soon.DebtAccording to a recent Fitch report as reported by newswires, outstanding debt securities from 'developing nations' have spiked to USD 19trn from USD 5trn a decade earlier. Despite the…

EM - Back to the Future with the Fragile 10

There are a few different themes to wrap your head around in the FX market.  We started today looking into trade rhetoric and its impact on markets.  Last week it appeared that trade tensions were easing, this week they are ratcheting up again.  Trump is willing to go to significant lengths to redress what he sees as long-lived and ingrained foreign policies to protect their industries. He wants to seek advantage for US industries and sees this as important for shoring up his political support and delivering on his election promises. The proposed auto tariffs are moves on the EU and NAFTA partners.  Sanctions policy on Iran and Russia add to trade tensions with Europe. Failing detente with North Korea may intensify US trade tensions with China.  We should continue to expect a stream of trade-protectionist threats from the US.  These are likely to be aimed at China, the EU, and its Nafta partners, but may have a much wider effect.  Early on, Trump’s trade rhetoric appeared to weaken the USD on fears that Trump would isolate the US, weaken US hegemony, and undermine the reserve status of the USD.  As Trump’s domestic political fortunes rise, strident trade policy is tending to boost the USD, lifting growth and inflation risks at home, dampening confidence in trade partners and global growth.

There are a few different themes to wrap your head around in the FX market.  We started today looking into trade rhetoric and its impact on markets.  Last week it appeared that trade tensions were easing, this week they are ratcheting up again.  Trump is willing to go to significant lengths to redress what he sees as long-lived and ingrained foreign policies to protect their industries. He wants to seek advantage for US industries and sees this as important for shoring up his political support and delivering on his election promises. The proposed auto tariffs are moves on the EU and NAFTA partners.  Sanctions policy on Iran and Russia add to trade tensions with Europe. Failing detente with North Korea may intensify US trade tensions with China.  We should continue to expect a stream of trade-protectionist threats from the US.  These are likely to be aimed at China, the EU, and its Nafta partners, but may have a much wider effect.  Early on, Trump’s trade rhetoric appeared to weaken the USD on fears that Trump would isolate the US, weaken US hegemony, and undermine the reserve status of the USD.  As Trump’s domestic political fortunes rise, strident trade policy is tending to boost the USD, lifting growth and inflation risks at home, dampening confidence in trade partners and global growth.

Strident US Trade Policy Supporting the USD

Things are changing fast. Singapore’s Lee Kwan Yew wisely observed that China is not just the largest economy in the World: it is the largest economy the World has ever seen! Expect big things. Our view is that the Chinese Yuan is en route to being the major challenger to the US dollar as an international means of payment. This will take time, but every journey has its first steps and China is already stepping out. Such long-term trends often show up early in financial markets and frequently in…

Things are changing fast. Singapore’s Lee Kwan Yew wisely observed that China is not just the largest economy in the World: it is the largest economy the World has ever seen! Expect big things. Our view is that the Chinese Yuan is en route to being the major challenger to the US dollar as an international means of payment. This will take time, but every journey has its first steps and China is already stepping out. Such long-term trends often show up early in financial markets and frequently in…

The Two Charts That Every Asian Investor Should Know About

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Hardened Populist Politics in Italy and the USA

Italian leaders have set on a course to clash with the EU that will be hard to turn back from. A more prolonged crisis appears likely. Trump is...

Greg Gibbs

Emerging Markets -- Is It Time To Panic?

A brief summary of recent CrossBorder Capital EM researchEvery Emerging Market Crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. This simple fact...

Michael J. Howell

EM - Back to the Future with the Fragile 10

In line with previous reports such as This Time Is Not Different: The Seeds of the Next Crisis Are Being Sown and Asia Calling: Dollar Rally Set to...

Callum Henderson

Strident US Trade Policy Supporting the USD

There are a few different themes to wrap your head around in the FX market. We started today looking into trade rhetoric and its impact on...

Greg Gibbs

The Two Charts That Every Asian Investor Should Know About

Things are changing fast. Singapore’s Lee Kwan Yew wisely observed that China is not just the largest economy in the World: it is the largest...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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