Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a></strong>'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a></strong> from Exxon Mobil.</li>
<li>The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.</li>
<li>Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil.
The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.
Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. 


Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. </li>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>, which look expensive relative to its underlying holding and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak</a>'s takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>.</li>
<li>We also saw commentary on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a>, as it saw General Atlantic take a stake, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>, as it provided positive guidance for 2023. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. 
The Past week saw insights on Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), which look expensive relative to its underlying holding and on Bangchak's takeover of Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
We also saw commentary on Cisarua Mountain Dairy, as it saw General Atlantic take a stake, and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ), as it provided positive guidance for 2023. 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - JCNC Overstretched, Cimory Raises Funds, and AKRA's Growth

<ul>
<li>Refiner/retailer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a></strong>'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a></strong> from <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. </li>
<li>Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. </li>
</ul>


Refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil (XOM US).
The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. 
Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-oil-and-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28939:1" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)</a>/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market. PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share, at the upper end of its IPO price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share. The shares are set to start trading on Thursday, 11 February. </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-initiation-octane-ratings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46230" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings</a>, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47147" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we opined that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. Our base-case DCF derived price target of THB22.20 per share. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price remains attractive.</p></div>
</div>

PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of PTT PCL (PTT TB) in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market. PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share, at the upper end of its IPO price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share. The shares are set to start trading on Thursday, 11 February. 
In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence.
In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights, we opined that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. Our base-case DCF derived price target of THB22.20 per share. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price remains attractive.


PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Trading Debut

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-oil-and-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28939:1" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)</a>/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market.</p></div><div><p>PTTOR has launched its IPO at a price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share to raise as much as THB47.0 billion ($1.6 billion). Cornerstone investors will account for around two-thirds of the offer shares. Nine international cornerstones which include Fidelity, JP Morgan Asset Management and GIC will take up $270 million of the offer shares. Nineteen domestic cornerstone investors will take up $758 million of the offer shares. The books will open on 22 January and the first day of trading is set for 11 February. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-initiation-octane-ratings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46230" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings</a>, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div></div></div>

PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of PTT PCL (PTT TB) in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market.PTTOR has launched its IPO at a price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share to raise as much as THB47.0 billion ($1.6 billion). Cornerstone investors will account for around two-thirds of the offer shares. Nine international cornerstones which include Fidelity, JP Morgan Asset Management and GIC will take up $270 million of the offer shares. Nineteen domestic cornerstone investors will take up $758 million of the offer shares. The books will open on 22 January and the first day of trading is set for 11 February. In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. 

PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights

Thailand

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

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Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)

Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Without a quantum shift in Esso's fundamentals over the next 6-8 months, this is a takeunder. A 17% fall is excessive. Shareholders should ignore...

David Blennerhassett

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - JCNC Overstretched, Cimory Raises Funds, and AKRA's Growth

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Esso Thailand: Bangchak Corp's Takeunder

Without a high degree of clarity on Esso's net debt and working capital adjustments, this is an avoid for arb investors. From an equity valuation...

David Blennerhassett

PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Trading Debut

PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share and the shares are set to start trading on 11 February. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights

PTTOR has launched its IPO to raise as much as THB47.0 billion ($1.6 billion). A reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support make PTTOR...

Arun George

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