Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.</li><li>Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.</li><li>EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.</li></ul>

Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.

EROAD: A Resilient VMS Business at Free Cashflow Inflection, Trading at Just 1.4x EV/Sales

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>RMB dual counter started trading. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS)</a> has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high</li>
</ul>


RMB dual counter started trading. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. 

China Feihe (6186 HK)'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. 

EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high


Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34 per share, a 30.1% premium to the undisturbed price (12.6% premium to the last close).</li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (OIO &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is in 1Q23. </li>
<li>The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to NZ$1.27 per share.</li>
</ul>



Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34 per share, a 30.1% premium to the undisturbed price (12.6% premium to the last close).
The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (OIO &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is in 1Q23. 
The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to NZ$1.27 per share.


Pushpay Enters a SID with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> confirmed that it had received a "revised" indicative non-binding proposal from a shareholder consortium, believed to be Sixth Street/BGH, which has a 20.3% stake.</li>
<li>The proposal is “to acquire the Company at a premium to Friday’s closing share price.” Due to the sell-off, Sixth Street/BGH will likely offer a lower premium than initially intended.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that Sixth Street/BGH’s offer is around A$1.30 per share. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting point in the current grim market conditions.</li>
</ul>



Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) confirmed that it had received a "revised" indicative non-binding proposal from a shareholder consortium, believed to be Sixth Street/BGH, which has a 20.3% stake.
The proposal is “to acquire the Company at a premium to Friday’s closing share price.” Due to the sell-off, Sixth Street/BGH will likely offer a lower premium than initially intended.
Our best guess is that Sixth Street/BGH’s offer is around A$1.30 per share. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting point in the current grim market conditions.


Pushpay Draws Another Sixth Street/BGH Offer

<ul>
<li>Sixth Street and BGH Capital entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> through a scheme of arrangement. They have a combined 20.3% stake. </li>
<li>In addition to Sixth Street/BGH, Pushpay also noted expressions of interest from multiple parties. The high recurring revenue, profitability and cash generation make it a target. </li>
<li>As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of at least A$1.46 (30% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access. </li>
</ul>


Sixth Street and BGH Capital entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) through a scheme of arrangement. They have a combined 20.3% stake. 
In addition to Sixth Street/BGH, Pushpay also noted expressions of interest from multiple parties. The high recurring revenue, profitability and cash generation make it a target. 
As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of at least A$1.46 (30% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access. 


BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?

New Zealand

EROAD Limited operates as a transport technology and services company. EROAD provides an electronic solution to manage and pay Road User Charges, support regulatory compliance and provide commercial services to the heavy vehicle industry.

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Eroad Ltd (ERD NZ)

EROAD: A Resilient VMS Business at Free Cashflow Inflection, Trading at Just 1.4x EV/Sales

Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding,...

Contrarian Cashflows

Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Pushpay Enters a SID with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34

The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to...

Arun George

Pushpay Draws Another Sixth Street/BGH Offer

Sixth Street/BGH are showing that they are determined suitors despite poor market conditions. Buy the shares as discussions will at least lead to...

Arun George

BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?

Sixth Street and BGH entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire Pushpay. They have a combined 20.3% stake. We think that a bid of...

Arun George

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