Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.</li><li>Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.</li><li>EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.</li></ul>

Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding, albeit challenging, strategies. The key lies in identifying companies where management's execution and the business's unit economics suggest a clear path to future profitability.Since most professional investors covering these stocks tend to focus heavily on quantitative metrics, a company's stock price can experience significant upward momentum once profitability is achieved. I believe EROAD Ltd. represents exactly this type of opportunity.EROAD is a New Zealand-based vertical market software (VMS) company that operates within the telematics markets of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.

EROAD: A Resilient VMS Business at Free Cashflow Inflection, Trading at Just 1.4x EV/Sales

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>The recent surge in M&amp;A activity within the New Zealand tech sector has been notable for the significant takeover premiums on offer, driven by opportunistic overseas bidders taking advantage of lower sector valuations and a weaker NZD/USD.</li>
<li>Significant offer premiums for companies like Rakon (RAK) +174%, TASK (TSK) +103%, and EROAD (ERD) at +69%, underline the perceived undervaluation of these firms by foreign investors.</li>
<li>The average premium of +76% in bids made for NZ tech companies in the past 18 months hints at the divergence between international and domestic views of the sector. </li>
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The recent surge in M&amp;A activity within the New Zealand tech sector has been notable for the significant takeover premiums on offer, driven by opportunistic overseas bidders taking advantage of lower sector valuations and a weaker NZD/USD.
Significant offer premiums for companies like Rakon (RAK) +174%, TASK (TSK) +103%, and EROAD (ERD) at +69%, underline the perceived undervaluation of these firms by foreign investors.
The average premium of +76% in bids made for NZ tech companies in the past 18 months hints at the divergence between international and domestic views of the sector. 






Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 6 — M&A Activity Heats Up

<ul><li>The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and around the globe.</li><li>We focus on three industry segments: Software &amp; Services, Technology hardware, and Semiconductors and equipment.</li><li>We aim to showcase what NZ technology is doing, provide updates on recent news at a company and technology level, present stock performance, and show relevant ratios.</li></ul>

The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and around the globe.We focus on three industry segments: Software &amp; Services, Technology hardware, and Semiconductors and equipment.We aim to showcase what NZ technology is doing, provide updates on recent news at a company and technology level, present stock performance, and show relevant ratios.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 5 — Layoffs Resume

<ul><li>The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and around the globe.</li><li>We focus on three industry segments: Software &amp; Services, Technology hardware and Semiconductors and equipment.</li><li>We aim to showcase what NZ technology is doing, provide updates on recent news at a company and technology level, present stock performance and show relevant ratios.</li></ul>

The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and around the globe.We focus on three industry segments: Software &amp; Services, Technology hardware and Semiconductors and equipment.We aim to showcase what NZ technology is doing, provide updates on recent news at a company and technology level, present stock performance and show relevant ratios.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 4 — Geo-Political Tensions Intensify

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>RMB dual counter started trading. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a></strong>'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener"><strong>China Feihe (6186 HK)</strong></a>'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener"><strong>EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS)</strong></a> has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high</li>
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RMB dual counter started trading. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. 

China Feihe (6186 HK)'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. 

EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high


Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

New Zealand

EROAD Limited operates as a transport technology and services company. EROAD provides an electronic solution to manage and pay Road User Charges, support regulatory compliance and provide commercial services to the heavy vehicle industry.

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Eroad Ltd (ERD NZ)

EROAD: A Resilient VMS Business at Free Cashflow Inflection, Trading at Just 1.4x EV/Sales

Investing in small and microcap businesses that are not yet profitable but on the cusp of generating profits can be one of the most rewarding,...

Contrarian Cashflows

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 6 — M&A Activity Heats Up

The average premium of +76% in bids made for NZ tech companies in the past 18 months hints at the divergence between international and domestic...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest - Edition 5 — Layoffs Resume

The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 4 — Geo-Political Tensions Intensify

The Forsyth Barr Technology Digest provides a snapshot of recent information relevant to the listed technology industries across New Zealand and...

Forsyth Barr

Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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