Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

<p>We continue to view the market as healthy in terms of breadth, although rotations are occurring at the margin which warrant minor tweaks to our overall theme of continued consolidation and heightened volatility. Also within our May Equity Strategy, we highlight opportunities within the Technology (Overweight), Financial (Overweight), and Energy (Market weight) Sectors.</p>

We continue to view the market as healthy in terms of breadth, although rotations are occurring at the margin which warrant minor tweaks to our overall theme of continued consolidation and heightened volatility. Also within our May Equity Strategy, we highlight opportunities within the Technology (Overweight), Financial (Overweight), and Energy (Market weight) Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities, Downgrading Manufacturing

United States

Enova International, Inc. offers online financial services to people who have bank accounts but have limited access to traditional consumer credit from banks, thrifts, credit card companies and other lenders. The Company offers short-term consumer and installment consumer loans in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada.

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Enova International (ENVA US)

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Improving, But Can It Last?

We continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day...

Vermilion Research

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Utilities, Downgrading Manufacturing

We continue to view the market as healthy in terms of breadth, although rotations are occurring at the margin which warrant minor tweaks to our...

Vermilion Research

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