Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Data from ~30 million participants in the Chase credit card panel (US) has shown a pullback in spending in recent weeks</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be independent of mobility dynamics, as in-person shopping outperformed overall spending</li>
<li>We text-mine the media for first-person accounts of hardship to find an increase in reported layoffs &amp; reduced personal spending, but the magnitude of increase has been encouragingly small (&lt;1x STDEV) so far relative to readings seen in H1</li>
<li>As we highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshots-quantifying-relative-sector-sentiment-in-the-recent-rotation-via-text-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45278" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining</a>, the cyclical rotation is alive and well on mid-term vaccine-driven recovery expectations; but the potential for vol around year-end funding or seasonal dynamics may be amplified by these weak Q4 trends once they appear in official macro releases</li>
</ul>


Data from ~30 million participants in the Chase credit card panel (US) has shown a pullback in spending in recent weeks
The pullback appears to be independent of mobility dynamics, as in-person shopping outperformed overall spending
We text-mine the media for first-person accounts of hardship to find an increase in reported layoffs &amp; reduced personal spending, but the magnitude of increase has been encouragingly small (&lt;1x STDEV) so far relative to readings seen in H1
As we highlighted in TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining, the cyclical rotation is alive and well on mid-term vaccine-driven recovery expectations; but the potential for vol around year-end funding or seasonal dynamics may be amplified by these weak Q4 trends once they appear in official macro releases


TMI Snapshot: High-Freq US Spending Data Pullback Looks Independent of Mobility, But Is It Relevant?

<ul>
<li>We text mine the global financial media to quantify short-term dynamics in sector sentiment looking for expressions referring to specific GICS sectors (i.e. energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care, financials, tech, utilities) via sentiment analysis of associated articles</li>
<li>Of the cyclical sectors, the relative surge in sentiment (vs. tech) has been most dramatic in Financials and Materials, and more measured in Energy and Industrials</li>
<li>We find that relative sentiment on cyclicals previously surged after the June and September VIX spikes; current relative sentiment readings for industrials, materials and energy are still below levels seen in the June and September episodes</li>
<li>On an absolute basis, Tech sector sentiment has corrected from +2.2x STDEVs to neutral in the past 2 weeks</li>
<li>Similarly, we recently saw declines in Health Care, Utilities and Staples sentiment to neutral/negative readings, though less dramatic than the move seen in Tech</li>
<li>Financials appear to be the only sector where sentiment has surged more than +2x STDEVs in recent weeks</li>
<li>Importantly, the most recent short-term reversal in cyclical sector sentiment clearly began in the final week of October, well ahead of the elections and Pfizer news</li>
</ul>


We text mine the global financial media to quantify short-term dynamics in sector sentiment looking for expressions referring to specific GICS sectors (i.e. energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care, financials, tech, utilities) via sentiment analysis of associated articles
Of the cyclical sectors, the relative surge in sentiment (vs. tech) has been most dramatic in Financials and Materials, and more measured in Energy and Industrials
We find that relative sentiment on cyclicals previously surged after the June and September VIX spikes; current relative sentiment readings for industrials, materials and energy are still below levels seen in the June and September episodes
On an absolute basis, Tech sector sentiment has corrected from +2.2x STDEVs to neutral in the past 2 weeks
Similarly, we recently saw declines in Health Care, Utilities and Staples sentiment to neutral/negative readings, though less dramatic than the move seen in Tech
Financials appear to be the only sector where sentiment has surged more than +2x STDEVs in recent weeks
Importantly, the most recent short-term reversal in cyclical sector sentiment clearly began in the final week of October, well ahead of the elections and Pfizer news


TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining

<ul>
<li>Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-cross-currents-in-the-us-rental-market-hint-at-pausing-inflation-expectations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43259" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)</a>
</li>
<li>We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-indicators-gold-sentiment-seeking-catalysts-following-latest-leg-up-on-us-benefit-expiration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43356" rel="noopener">TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration</a>)</li>
<li>While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow</li>
<li>Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine</li>
<li>With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges</li>
<li>As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)</li>
<li>As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)

We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration)
While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow
Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine
With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges
As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)
As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1">Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)</a> is bouncing into near term resistance with intermediate overhead resistance that increases odds of another hard decline in the June contract to re test key lows with risk of another downside surprise.Daily chart resistance outlines a key trendline and price barrier that will act as the topside cap and key pivot barrier in coming weeks. The intraday structure displays downside risk from the 20 area with a compelling RSI divergent setup. Oil once again shows downside risk that will have a bigger impact on energy shares as oil companies commence a dividend cutting cycle that will lead to many companies eliminated dividends all together as consolidation in the industry takesa very real negative turn. The Energy sector ETF (XLE) is featured.

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) is bouncing into near term resistance with intermediate overhead resistance that increases odds of another hard decline in the June contract to re test key lows with risk of another downside surprise.Daily chart resistance outlines a key trendline and price barrier that will act as the topside cap and key pivot barrier in coming weeks. The intraday structure displays downside risk from the 20 area with a compelling RSI divergent setup. Oil once again shows downside risk that will have a bigger impact on energy shares as oil companies commence a dividend cutting cycle that will lead to many companies eliminated dividends all together as consolidation in the industry takesa very real negative turn. The Energy sector ETF (XLE) is featured.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1">Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)</a> sends a clear and dire signal for slower growth after the OPEC+ deal that did not hold dual lows at 20. This break now targets lower congestion support going back to the 1980's to 1990's topside and lower congestion range.The weekly chart going back to 1985 illustrates the basing support that is now in focus.RSI needs to work its way down to noted backswing support before a recovery takes hold to challenge the 20 pivot level which now acts as key resistance. Above 20, a bounce would target 24/25. Two trade levels are outlined.US energy shares (XLE) have seen a massive outperformance spike relative to WTI and at current levels set up a short. The key takeaway is the energy shares always bottom ahead of oil and after a fresh base forms will emerge as a solid theme in the second half of 2020. Current ratio levels offer a shorting opportunity on XLE vs WTI.

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) sends a clear and dire signal for slower growth after the OPEC+ deal that did not hold dual lows at 20. This break now targets lower congestion support going back to the 1980's to 1990's topside and lower congestion range.The weekly chart going back to 1985 illustrates the basing support that is now in focus.RSI needs to work its way down to noted backswing support before a recovery takes hold to challenge the 20 pivot level which now acts as key resistance. Above 20, a bounce would target 24/25. Two trade levels are outlined.US energy shares (XLE) have seen a massive outperformance spike relative to WTI and at current levels set up a short. The key takeaway is the energy shares always bottom ahead of oil and after a fresh base forms will emerge as a solid theme in the second half of 2020. Current ratio levels offer a shorting opportunity on XLE vs WTI.

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

TMI Snapshot: High-Freq US Spending Data Pullback Looks Independent of Mobility, But Is It Relevant?

Chase US card spending data has pulled back in recent weeks, and our own text-mined data has seen a mild increase in reported financial hardship. ...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining

We quantify recent sector sentiment dynamics through the lens of text mining. The current cyclical rotation is in its early innings, as relative...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshots: More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Last week we highlighted

Elan Gore

WTI Next Plunge

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) is bouncing into near term resistance with intermediate overhead resistance that increases odds of another hard...

Thomas Schroeder

Crude Oil Targets Below 20 and Trades

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) sends a clear and dire signal for slower growth after the OPEC+ deal that did not hold dual lows at 20. This break now...

Thomas Schroeder

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