Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks</li>
<li>Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions</li>
<li>Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


We trace the recent media preoccupation with asset bubbles to find that fears over potential bubbles in SPACs, Clean Energy, IPOs and Bitcoin have clearly lost momentum in recent weeks
Talk of a "commodities supercycle" has surged to a new high, coinciding with the current wave of weather-induced energy disruptions
Vaccine rollout sentiment has been consistently improving for weeks, as data from France and Germany has improved slightly in the MTD while the US rollout continues to accelerate
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<p>The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.</p><p>The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.</p>

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

<ul>
<li>After a tumultuous January, it's easy to forget the original negative reaction to Biden's January 14 unveiling of the $1.9tr USD stimulus plan on concerns over ambitious wealth redistribution policies</li>
<li>Our text-mining finds that sentiment on the stimulus package has surged to &gt; +2x STDEVs in recent days, driving the revival of cyclicals sentiment and the value-over-growth theme after a short pause</li>
<li>With Biden's $15/hr minimum wage proposal likely off the table at this stage, at least one potential source of worry has been removed for corporate America</li>
<li>In conjunction with the surge in sentiment, we see a record volume surge in coverage of infrastructure and clean energy themes ahead of Biden's much-anticipated additional $2tr stimulus bill expected later this month focusing on the long-term "Build Back Better" campaign theme of sustainable infrastructure and decarbonization investment</li>
<li>Despite disappointing non-farm payrolls, new alt-data points in the past week highlight a late-January surge in US job postings; in light of the crude oil recovery and deceleration in new COVID case growth, recent data points confirm the rotation trade had only paused momentarily in January</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


After a tumultuous January, it's easy to forget the original negative reaction to Biden's January 14 unveiling of the $1.9tr USD stimulus plan on concerns over ambitious wealth redistribution policies
Our text-mining finds that sentiment on the stimulus package has surged to &gt; +2x STDEVs in recent days, driving the revival of cyclicals sentiment and the value-over-growth theme after a short pause
With Biden's $15/hr minimum wage proposal likely off the table at this stage, at least one potential source of worry has been removed for corporate America
In conjunction with the surge in sentiment, we see a record volume surge in coverage of infrastructure and clean energy themes ahead of Biden's much-anticipated additional $2tr stimulus bill expected later this month focusing on the long-term "Build Back Better" campaign theme of sustainable infrastructure and decarbonization investment
Despite disappointing non-farm payrolls, new alt-data points in the past week highlight a late-January surge in US job postings; in light of the crude oil recovery and deceleration in new COVID case growth, recent data points confirm the rotation trade had only paused momentarily in January
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Sentiment Surge on Biden Stimulus - What a Difference 3 Weeks Make

<ul>
<li>Back in November, we text-mined for GICS sector-level sentiment shifts as the post-election cyclical rotation arrived (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshots-quantifying-relative-sector-sentiment-in-the-recent-rotation-via-text-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45278" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining</a>)</li>
<li>At the time, we saw Financials sector sentiment surge along with Materials, while Industrials sentiment remained subdued; these sentiment readings have been somewhat reflected in performance, as since October 31 the S&amp;P Financials (XLF) is up +28%, S&amp;P Materials (XLB) +21%, and S&amp;P Industrials (XLI) +18%</li>
<li>All cyclical sectors are now in positive territory sentiment-wise, with Consumer Discretionary and Financials sentiment now looking quite extended at multi-STDEV readings</li>
<li>Industrials sector sentiment stood out as relatively depressed for months, but is breaking out of its range in the last 10 days</li>
<li>As we noted in our post on cyclicals sentiment last week (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-cyclicals-sentiment-melts-up-into-year-end-impact-concentrated-in-materials-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46660" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Cyclicals Sentiment Melts Up into Year-End, Impact Concentrated in Materials Sector),</a> the rotation theme has been particularly strongly correlated to the Materials sector (metals in particular) and there is potentially room for laggard cyclicals - namely industrials - to catch up as recent sentiment readings imply </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Back in November, we text-mined for GICS sector-level sentiment shifts as the post-election cyclical rotation arrived (see TMI Snapshots: Quantifying Relative Sector Sentiment in the Recent Rotation Via Text Mining)
At the time, we saw Financials sector sentiment surge along with Materials, while Industrials sentiment remained subdued; these sentiment readings have been somewhat reflected in performance, as since October 31 the S&amp;P Financials (XLF) is up +28%, S&amp;P Materials (XLB) +21%, and S&amp;P Industrials (XLI) +18%
All cyclical sectors are now in positive territory sentiment-wise, with Consumer Discretionary and Financials sentiment now looking quite extended at multi-STDEV readings
Industrials sector sentiment stood out as relatively depressed for months, but is breaking out of its range in the last 10 days
As we noted in our post on cyclicals sentiment last week (TMI Snapshot:  Cyclicals Sentiment Melts Up into Year-End, Impact Concentrated in Materials Sector), the rotation theme has been particularly strongly correlated to the Materials sector (metals in particular) and there is potentially room for laggard cyclicals - namely industrials - to catch up as recent sentiment readings imply 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Revisiting Cyclical Sector Sentiment - Industrials Showing Signs of Life

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>WTI met the 44 long level and is now kissing the 48 near term target where we expect a pullback in risk that will see the oil rally stall and a time to take some profits in oil this week.</p><p>We are looking for a peak cycle in risk in mid-December for a pullback into late December where the bull sequence will resume.</p><p>Fresh buy levels in WTI outlined as well as the XLE outperform cycle with late December viewed as a buying opportunity.</p>

WTI met the 44 long level and is now kissing the 48 near term target where we expect a pullback in risk that will see the oil rally stall and a time to take some profits in oil this week.We are looking for a peak cycle in risk in mid-December for a pullback into late December where the bull sequence will resume.Fresh buy levels in WTI outlined as well as the XLE outperform cycle with late December viewed as a buying opportunity.

WTI Rally Target with Energy Picking up Slack

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

TMI Snapshot: Bubble Fears Subside, Commodity Supercycle Views Spike, Vaccine Sentiment Rises

Increased complacency has been apparent in recent weeks as bubble fears subsided on key themes thought to be potentially overextended. At the same...

Elan Gore

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. There is a value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the likely...

Cam Hui

TMI Snapshot: Sentiment Surge on Biden Stimulus - What a Difference 3 Weeks Make

We have seen a +2x STDEV surge in sentiment on Biden's stimulus package and a record increase in coverage of infrastructure and clean energy...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Revisiting Cyclical Sector Sentiment - Industrials Showing Signs of Life

Revisiting our cyclical sector sentiment indicators, we find a breakout in Industrials sentiment coming from a relatively low base - time for...

Elan Gore

WTI Rally Target with Energy Picking up Slack

WTI is meeting the 48 target, we outlined fresh long support into late December as well as level to add to energy exposure (XLE) as the outperform...

Thomas Schroeder

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