Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.</li><li>0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.</li><li>As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.</li></ul>

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on.0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but also that tailwinds from base-effects are long gone.As we rightly called, the energy component has collapsed, and while the category doesn’t contribute much (in its separate bracket) it does however feed into most of the other.

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Conclusions up front: – We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again.</li><li>Our model is approaching the buy zone despite the recent weakness seen in Oil.</li><li>The big risk to our model is a supply increase from an exhausted Saudi Arabian one-man-army.</li></ul>

Conclusions up front: – We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again.Our model is approaching the buy zone despite the recent weakness seen in Oil.The big risk to our model is a supply increase from an exhausted Saudi Arabian one-man-army.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?</li>
<li>JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.</li>
<li>Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?
JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.
Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.


Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further Fuel for the Market Rally

We just had the October inflation data from the US, and our projections were spot on. 0% MoM and 3.23% YoY, is a sign of successful cooling but...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Time to Buy Oil Again?

We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again. Our model is approaching the buy zone...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?

Steno Research

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