Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>February typically has higher than normal absolute median price change of 8.67% vs 1M straddle cost of ~7.59%</li>
<li>February median historic vol is 34.44 which compares favorably to current implied vol of 31.</li>
<li>Distribution of returns when GDX has rallied this much against GLD indicative of 8.60% absolute median return.</li>
</ul>


February typically has higher than normal absolute median price change of 8.67% vs 1M straddle cost of ~7.59%
February median historic vol is 34.44 which compares favorably to current implied vol of 31.
Distribution of returns when GDX has rallied this much against GLD indicative of 8.60% absolute median return.


External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Author recommends buying a basket of gold miners via GDX</li><li>Bullish on price of gold and miners, predicting period of out-performance</li><li>Targeting GDX's previous peaks in low $40’s and potential "parity" target of $45</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Author recommends buying a basket of gold miners via GDXBullish on price of gold and miners, predicting period of out-performanceTargeting GDX's previous peaks in low $40’s and potential "parity" target of $45This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Vaneck Gold Miners Etf (GDX) - Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025</li>
<li>Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative</li>
<li>Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key</li>
</ul>


Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

EQD | GDX – Buy 1Month Straddle

We provide rationale why we expect a > 7.59% move for GDX and higher volatility over the coming month and recommend purchase of a long straddle...

John Ley

Vaneck Gold Miners Etf (GDX) - Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

Author recommends buying a basket of gold miners via GDX. Bullish on price of gold and miners, predicting period of out-performance

Value Investors Club

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

The Federal Reserve plans to cut rates three times in 2024 and a total of 175bps by end 2025, keeping policy accommodative. BOJ remains loose....

Rikki Malik

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