Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Event-Driven

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:98:1" rel="noopener">Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)</a> is acquiring the U.S.-based late-stage biotechnology company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concert-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9312:1" rel="noopener">Concert Pharmaceuticals (CNCE US)</a> for $576M in equity value. The transaction is expected to be completed in 1Q23.</li>
<li>Concert has completed the evaluation of the efficacy and safety of its lead candidate, deuruxolitinib in adult patients with moderate to severe Alopecia Areata in its phase 3 clinical program.</li>
<li>With the disease affecting up to ~1.5M people in the U.S., Alopecia represents potential blockbuster opportunity. Sun Pharma plans to file NDA for deuruxolitinib to the FDA in 1H23.</li>
</ul>



Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) is acquiring the U.S.-based late-stage biotechnology company, Concert Pharmaceuticals (CNCE US) for $576M in equity value. The transaction is expected to be completed in 1Q23.
Concert has completed the evaluation of the efficacy and safety of its lead candidate, deuruxolitinib in adult patients with moderate to severe Alopecia Areata in its phase 3 clinical program.
With the disease affecting up to ~1.5M people in the U.S., Alopecia represents potential blockbuster opportunity. Sun Pharma plans to file NDA for deuruxolitinib to the FDA in 1H23.


Sun Pharmaceutical Ind (SUNP IN): Acquisition Adds Late-Stage Biopharma Product in Derma Franchise

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei Group (4565 JP)</a> is currently eligible for total milestone payment of more than $9.5B for its existing collaborations. During 9MFY23, Sosei reported revenue growth of 141% YoY to ¥8.6B.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> has dosed first subject in phase 2 clinical trial of type 2 diabetes drug candidate PF-07081532. Achievement of this milestone triggers a $10M payment to Sosei.</li>
<li>Sosei has four programs in preclinical studies and 10+ in discovery phase, which are still unpartnered. The company has a cash runway into 2025 to fund its drug discovery activities.</li>
</ul>



Sosei Group (4565 JP) is currently eligible for total milestone payment of more than $9.5B for its existing collaborations. During 9MFY23, Sosei reported revenue growth of 141% YoY to ¥8.6B.

Pfizer Inc (PFE US) has dosed first subject in phase 2 clinical trial of type 2 diabetes drug candidate PF-07081532. Achievement of this milestone triggers a $10M payment to Sosei.
Sosei has four programs in preclinical studies and 10+ in discovery phase, which are still unpartnered. The company has a cash runway into 2025 to fund its drug discovery activities.


Sosei Group (4565 JP): Partners’ Pipeline Progress Reflects Power of Drug Discovery Platform

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.</li>
<li>Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.</li>
<li>Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.</li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.
Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.
Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.


Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

Vertex Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US)</a>, the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  </li>
<li>MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.</li>
<li>Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.</li>
</ul>



Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.


Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals.  The Company's products are sold in countries around the world.  Eli Lilly's products include neuroscience products, endocrine products, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology products, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US)

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Sun Pharmaceutical Ind (SUNP IN): Acquisition Adds Late-Stage Biopharma Product in Derma Franchise

Sun Pharma is acquiring US-based Concert Pharmaceuticals for $576M. Post-acquisition, the priority will be to materialize Concert’s plan to submit...

Tina Banerjee

Sosei Group (4565 JP): Partners’ Pipeline Progress Reflects Power of Drug Discovery Platform

Discovery collaboration with global pharma giants and consequent progress of the pipeline triggering milestone payments enhances conviction on...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

In long-term, Peptidream targets ¥100B revenue from ¥9.4B in 2021. While base business is poised for steady growth via expansion of collaboration...

Tina Banerjee

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By leveraging on industry-leading profitability, strong balance sheet and current cash flow, Trikafta, Vertex is re-investing in next-generation...

Tina Banerjee

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