Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> has come out with ambitious revenue target for Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi with new estimates for global eligible patient population and potential indication expansions.</li>
<li>By FY27, Eisai expects Leqembi can generate revenue of ¥290B (~$2B) worldwide. Leqembi revenue can potentially ballooned to a whopping ¥1.6T (~$10.8B) by FY33, according to the company.</li>
<li>Through January, Eisai could reach just 2,000 patients in the U.S. versus target of 10K patients by March. The sluggish progress of Leqembi makes Eisai’s target difficult to achieve.</li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has come out with ambitious revenue target for Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi with new estimates for global eligible patient population and potential indication expansions.
By FY27, Eisai expects Leqembi can generate revenue of ¥290B (~$2B) worldwide. Leqembi revenue can potentially ballooned to a whopping ¥1.6T (~$10.8B) by FY33, according to the company.
Through January, Eisai could reach just 2,000 patients in the U.S. versus target of 10K patients by March. The sluggish progress of Leqembi makes Eisai’s target difficult to achieve.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Despite Sluggish Launch, Ambitious Long-Term Target Set for Leqembi

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.</li>
<li>The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.</li>
<li>I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
</ul>


In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.
I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.


Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bristol-myers-squibb-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1133:1" rel="noopener">Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karuna-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28720:1" rel="noopener">Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US)</a> for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. </li>
<li>Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.</li>
<li>Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.</li>
</ul>



Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US) is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US) for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. 
Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.
Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.


Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.</li>
<li>Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.</li>
<li>This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.</li>
</ul>


A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.
Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.
This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Pfizer seems to be the worst-performing large pharma stock of 2023 after it lowered 2024 forecast. The Company continues to grapple with plummeting demand for its COVID products</li>
<li>The acquisition of Seagen can't turn things around. Except a few products that are still able to maintain growth, sales of vast majority products that we’re familiar with are declining. </li>
<li>The growth engine of Pfizer in post-pandemic era is still uncertain. Even though Pfizer's share price has fallen sharply, this may still not be the time for bottom fishing.</li>
</ul>


Pfizer seems to be the worst-performing large pharma stock of 2023 after it lowered 2024 forecast. The Company continues to grapple with plummeting demand for its COVID products
The acquisition of Seagen can't turn things around. Except a few products that are still able to maintain growth, sales of vast majority products that we’re familiar with are declining. 
The growth engine of Pfizer in post-pandemic era is still uncertain. Even though Pfizer's share price has fallen sharply, this may still not be the time for bottom fishing.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US) - Continue to Lose Its Way in the Post-Pandemic Era

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals.  The Company's products are sold in countries around the world.  Eli Lilly's products include neuroscience products, endocrine products, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology products, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US)

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Despite Sluggish Launch, Ambitious Long-Term Target Set for Leqembi

Eisai projects Leqembi revenue to reach ¥1.6T by FY33 with early and pre-clinical AD indications. As of January, Leqembi reached just 2K patients...

Tina Banerjee

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...

Tina Banerjee

29 Reasons to Be Bullish

A bottom-up scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases...

Cam Hui

Pfizer Inc (PFE US) - Continue to Lose Its Way in the Post-Pandemic Era

Pfizer's strategy in post-pandemic era is to "buy revenue", but sustainable growth is questionable because acquisitions may fail to bring...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Despite Sluggish Launch, Ambitious Long-Term Target Set for Leqembi

Eisai projects Leqembi revenue to reach ¥1.6T by FY33 with early and pre-clinical AD indications. As of January, Leqembi reached just 2K patients...

Tina Banerjee

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

​BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...

Tina Banerjee

29 Reasons to Be Bullish

A bottom-up scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases...

Cam Hui

Pfizer Inc (PFE US) - Continue to Lose Its Way in the Post-Pandemic Era

Pfizer's strategy in post-pandemic era is to "buy revenue", but sustainable growth is questionable because acquisitions may fail to bring...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...