HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Due to large patient population and strong clinical demand for new therapies, the future commercialization prospects of effective drugs in the field of schizophrenia would be relatively certain and promising.</li>
<li>Our forecast on the peak sales of KarXT is about US$10 billion. In other words, at this peak sales level, BMS is able to recover the US$14 billion in cost.</li>
<li>Karuna’s P/B is much higher than peers. If investors already have Karuna in portfolio, they may consider taking profits in time.But another rally is possible when KarXT is officially approved.</li>
</ul>


Due to large patient population and strong clinical demand for new therapies, the future commercialization prospects of effective drugs in the field of schizophrenia would be relatively certain and promising.
Our forecast on the peak sales of KarXT is about US$10 billion. In other words, at this peak sales level, BMS is able to recover the US$14 billion in cost.
Karuna’s P/B is much higher than peers. If investors already have Karuna in portfolio, they may consider taking profits in time.But another rally is possible when KarXT is officially approved.


Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX.US) - This Company Is Worth Bristol Myers Squibb Paying a High Premium

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

Karuna Therapeutics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.</li>
<li>The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.</li>
<li>I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
</ul>


In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.
I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.


Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bristol-myers-squibb-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1133:1" rel="noopener">Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karuna-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28720:1" rel="noopener">Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US)</a> for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. </li>
<li>Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.</li>
<li>Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.</li>
</ul>



Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US) is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US) for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. 
Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.
Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.


Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puretech-health-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22096:1" rel="noopener">PureTech Health (PRTC LN)</a> has confirmed its possible merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nektar-therapeutics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15060:1" rel="noopener">Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US)</a>. Uncertainty regarding the actual offer has caused volatility to PureTech shares.</li>
<li>Nektar will be required, by not later than November 3, 2022, to announce a firm intention to make an offer for the company.</li>
<li>Nektar faced a big setback in its lead pipeline assets and is going through tight financial condition. We are not expecting a lucrative takeover offer for PureTech.</li>
</ul>



PureTech Health (PRTC LN) has confirmed its possible merger with Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US). Uncertainty regarding the actual offer has caused volatility to PureTech shares.
Nektar will be required, by not later than November 3, 2022, to announce a firm intention to make an offer for the company.
Nektar faced a big setback in its lead pipeline assets and is going through tight financial condition. We are not expecting a lucrative takeover offer for PureTech.


PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Possible Combination with Nektar Is Just a Defensive Move

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puretech-health-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22096:1" rel="noopener">PureTech Health (PRTC LN)</a> has raised approximately $115.4 million through partial offloading of stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karuna-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28720:1" rel="noopener">Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US)</a>. PureTech will continue to hold 3.5% of Karuna's outstanding shares.</li>
<li>Following the transactions, PureTech has updated guidance to extend its operational runway to Q1 2026 from prior cash runway guidance into Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Karuna plans to submit a new drug application for KarXT in schizophrenia with the FDA in mid-2023. As a co-inventor of KarXT, PureTech has the right to receive royalty.</li>
</ul>



PureTech Health (PRTC LN) has raised approximately $115.4 million through partial offloading of stake in Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US). PureTech will continue to hold 3.5% of Karuna's outstanding shares.
Following the transactions, PureTech has updated guidance to extend its operational runway to Q1 2026 from prior cash runway guidance into Q1 2025.
Karuna plans to submit a new drug application for KarXT in schizophrenia with the FDA in mid-2023. As a co-inventor of KarXT, PureTech has the right to receive royalty.


PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Continued Value Unlocking; Multiple Catalysts Are Pushing Up Stock Price

United States

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops therapies for the treatment of chronic mental health disorder. Karuna Therapeutics serves patients in the United States.

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Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US)