Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 13 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> suitor YFO issued a press release which was not to the liking of Toyo Construction. A day later, Toyo Construction offered its <a href="https://www.toyo-const.co.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/20221214.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">own</a>.</li>
<li>YFO responded on the 21st, saying ToyoKen's PR was inaccurate. Not quite a week after that, ToyoKen announced one tiny subsidiary(<a href="http://www.tecos.co.jp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tecos</a>) would absorb another (portable toilet rental co <a href="https://www.orieco.co.jp/company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Orient Ecology</a>).</li>
<li>Synergies? None. Growth? None. Scale? Nope. Was this for some other reason investors need to worry about? Maybe.</li>
</ul>


On 13 December, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) suitor YFO issued a press release which was not to the liking of Toyo Construction. A day later, Toyo Construction offered its own.
YFO responded on the 21st, saying ToyoKen's PR was inaccurate. Not quite a week after that, ToyoKen announced one tiny subsidiary(Tecos) would absorb another (portable toilet rental co Orient Ecology).
Synergies? None. Growth? None. Scale? Nope. Was this for some other reason investors need to worry about? Maybe.


Toyo Construction (1890) Investors/Traders Beware

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Electric Power Development C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operating under the brand name J-Power, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> is leading Japan’s efforts to make carbon dioxide-free electricity by 2050.</li>
<li>The company’s investments in gasification and carbon dioxide separation technology and carbon dioxide-free hydrogen generation from coal are close to commercialisation.</li>
<li>With the technology to serve other power producers to develop their own environmentally-friendly power projects, J-Power could turn into a global-leader in the power generation space in the next decade.</li>
</ul>


Operating under the brand name J-Power, Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) is leading Japan’s efforts to make carbon dioxide-free electricity by 2050.
The company’s investments in gasification and carbon dioxide separation technology and carbon dioxide-free hydrogen generation from coal are close to commercialisation.
With the technology to serve other power producers to develop their own environmentally-friendly power projects, J-Power could turn into a global-leader in the power generation space in the next decade.


2023 High Conviction: J-Power Stands Out As Japan Goes Carbon Neutral

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>On the 25 July, renewable energy play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a></strong>  <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02544773-2A1386667?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a non-binding indicative proposal from Atlassian's Scott Farquhar and Stonepeak, by way of a Scheme, at A$0.23/share.  </li>
<li>Genex subsequently <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02548222-2A1388020?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> the proposal less than a week later on the grounds the Offer undervalued the company.  </li>
<li>Farquhar, via Skip Essential Infrastructure Fund, and Stonepeak have increased their non-binding proposal to A$0.25/share. Genex has now provided confirmatory due diligence.</li>
</ul>


On the 25 July, renewable energy play Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)  announced a non-binding indicative proposal from Atlassian's Scott Farquhar and Stonepeak, by way of a Scheme, at A$0.23/share.  
Genex subsequently rejected the proposal less than a week later on the grounds the Offer undervalued the company.  
Farquhar, via Skip Essential Infrastructure Fund, and Stonepeak have increased their non-binding proposal to A$0.25/share. Genex has now provided confirmatory due diligence.


Genex Opens Its Books After Farquhar Bumps

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.</li>
<li>The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.
The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. 
The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    


Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> shares rose 44% on the back of an A$0.23 per share offer from Skip Capital and Stonepeak. Skip also increased its stake to 19.99%.</li>
<li>At first glance, the offer looks generous in comparison to peer multiples and recent share prices. However, the offer is opportunistic partly due to Genex’s 500MW pipeline of projects. </li>
<li>Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is worth at least A$0.27 per share. The Board should engage for a higher price. </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) shares rose 44% on the back of an A$0.23 per share offer from Skip Capital and Stonepeak. Skip also increased its stake to 19.99%.
At first glance, the offer looks generous in comparison to peer multiples and recent share prices. However, the offer is opportunistic partly due to Genex’s 500MW pipeline of projects. 
Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is worth at least A$0.27 per share. The Board should engage for a higher price. 


Genex’s Offer of A$0.23 from Skip Capital Likely Won’t Cut It

Japan

RENOVA, Inc. is mainly engaged in operating and managing solar power, biomass power, wind power (onshore and offshore), and geothermal power generations.

Erex Co.,Ltd. is mainly specialized in supplying electric power generated from biomass.  The Company also offers facility construction and maintenance services.

TOHO GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies gas in Nagoya metropolitan area and the surrounding area.  The Company also produces gas-related products such as cokes and tars, and provides gas supply line work and home appliances.

The Chugoku Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes and sells electricity in Chugoku area which includes Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Yamaguchi, and Hiroshima Prefectures.  The Company uses coal, liquefied natural gas, and nuclear energy as its power sources.

Shikoku Electric Power Company Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Shikoku region which includes Kagawa, Kouchi, Tokushima, and Ehime prefectures.  The Company uses nuclear, thermal, internal combustion, and hydraulic power sources.

Tohoku Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates and sells electricity. The Company serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Niigata, Aomori, Iwate, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, and Miyagi Prefectures.  Tohoku Electric uses coal, nuclear energy, and liquefied natural gas as its power sources.  The Company also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities.

Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokkaido area. The Company generates electricity by using hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power alongside coal and oil. Hokkaido Electric Power also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities. Additionally, the Company sells electrical equipment.

Hokuriku Electric Power Company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokuriku area including Fukui, Ishikawa, and Toyama prefectures.  The Company uses hydroelectric and nuclear power sources.

Kyushu Electric Power Company, Incorporated provides electric power in Kyushu including Fukuoka, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, and Kagoshima.  The Company diversifies power resources into nuclear, liquefied natural gas, coal, and geothermal energy.  Kyushu Electric Power has offices in US and Europe.

K&O Energy Group Inc. manages its subsidiaries which supply natural gas and iodine. The company' subsidiaries also sell gas appliances and conduct related construction businesses.

Clearway Energy, Inc. owns, operates, and acquires renewable and conventional generation and thermal infrastructure projects. The Company offers natural gas and dual fired, solar and wind generation and distribution services. Clearway Energy serves commercial businesses, universities, hospitals, and government companies in the United States.

Guangzhou Development Group Inc operates an electric power generation plant in Guangzhou, China.  The Company also sells coal, invests in the fiber-optic cable network installation business, and constructs roads and bridges.

An Hui Wenergy Co., Ltd. generates electric power.  Through its subsidiaries, the company also manufactures networking terminal products.

Beijing Jingneng Power Co., Ltd. generates electrical and thermal power.  The Company also maintains and repairs electricity generation equipment.

Encavis AG provides electricity generation from power plants. The Company produces power from renewable energy sources which includes solar energy plants and wind farms, as well as specializes in the technical operation of solar parks, routine maintenance, monitoring, incident management, and performance analysis. Encavis serves renewable energy sector in Europe.

Drax Group PLC generates and supplies electricity.  The Company owns a coal and biomass-fired power plant in the United Kingdom.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Enel Generacion Chile SA operates as an electricity generation company. The Company generates and distributes electric energy.

Atlantica Yield plc operates as a total return company. The Company owns a diversified portfolio of contracted renewable energy, power generation, and electric transmission assets. Atlantica Yield offers its services in North America, South America, and Europe.

Electric Power Development Co.,Ltd. generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric power using hydroelectric, wind-power, nuclear, coal-fired and other thermal power stations throughout Japan.

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Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)

Toyo Construction (1890) Investors/Traders Beware

Toyo Construction is in mild limbo. ToyoKen has threatened legal action against YFO while "continuing" to sincerely discuss the thing which in fact...

Travis Lundy

2023 High Conviction: J-Power Stands Out As Japan Goes Carbon Neutral

With the technology to serve other power producers to develop their own environmentally-friendly power projects, J-Power could turn into a global...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Genex Opens Its Books After Farquhar Bumps

Trading around a 8.7% gross spread to the indicative Offer. This is a buy here. But this is not a super liquid arb situation.

David Blennerhassett

Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

Maintain holding or buy with the view of a potential rival bid or that the risk of the headcount test forces Skip/Stonepeak to further bump their...

Arun George

Genex’s Offer of A$0.23 from Skip Capital Likely Won’t Cut It

At first glance, the A$0.23 offer looks generous. Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is...

Arun George

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