Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hyundai Rotem is right on the edge for Small Cap→Standard, so it is the only one having a real chance of being included in the November review.</li>
<li>Doosan Robotics’ float rate will rise to 40% after issuing 20,219,376 new shares, making it a top candidate for inclusion among Outside IMI and comfortably surpassing the cutoff.</li>
<li>With high trading volume volatility, it’s early to predict passive impact. Watch for momentum buildup like LS Electric and monitor the trading volume of Hyundai Rotem and Robotics closely.</li>
</ul>


Hyundai Rotem is right on the edge for Small Cap→Standard, so it is the only one having a real chance of being included in the November review.
Doosan Robotics’ float rate will rise to 40% after issuing 20,219,376 new shares, making it a top candidate for inclusion among Outside IMI and comfortably surpassing the cutoff.
With high trading volume volatility, it’s early to predict passive impact. Watch for momentum buildup like LS Electric and monitor the trading volume of Hyundai Rotem and Robotics closely.


Notable Developments in the November Review of the Global Index Korea Standard

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. </li>
<li>Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.</li>
<li>Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. </li>
</ul>


On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 


Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

<ul>
<li>FSS Governor Lee challenged the legality of the Robotics-Bobcat merger ratio, citing Article 176-5 of the Capital Markets Act, allowing a 10% premium or discount.</li>
<li>Following the FSS Governor's statements, Doosan must likely apply a 10% premium/discount to the Robotics-Bobcat merger, creating a 30% spread based on current stock prices.</li>
<li>Doosan may still revise or cancel the merger, but the FSS Governor's comments might boost Bobcat short-term. Given the uncertainty, aggressive trading is risky.</li>
</ul>


FSS Governor Lee challenged the legality of the Robotics-Bobcat merger ratio, citing Article 176-5 of the Capital Markets Act, allowing a 10% premium or discount.
Following the FSS Governor's statements, Doosan must likely apply a 10% premium/discount to the Robotics-Bobcat merger, creating a 30% spread based on current stock prices.
Doosan may still revise or cancel the merger, but the FSS Governor's comments might boost Bobcat short-term. Given the uncertainty, aggressive trading is risky.


Korea FSS Chief Calls for 10% Premium/Discount on Doosan Merger, Boosting Swap Spread to 30%

<ul>
<li>The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.</li>
<li>Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.</li>
<li>The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.</li>
</ul>


The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.
Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.
The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.


Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.</li>
<li>We expect up to five ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2024 index rebal event based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.
We expect up to five ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2024 index rebal event based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible

South Korea

Doosan Robotics Inc. develops and manufactures industrial equipment. The Company manufactures robots, linear actuation devices, automated production equipment, and other products. Doosan Robotics conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)

Notable Developments in the November Review of the Global Index Korea Standard

This post highlights key developments regarding Hyundai Rotem and Doosan Robotics in the Global Index Korea Standard's November review.

Sanghyun Park

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Lee Bok-Hyun (FSS head) stated today that "In reality, the market prices [of Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics] may not properly reflect their fair...

Douglas Kim

Korea FSS Chief Calls for 10% Premium/Discount on Doosan Merger, Boosting Swap Spread to 30%

The FSS Governor made a shocking statement on TV today, saying that a 10% premium and discount should be applied to the Doosan merger ratio. This...

Sanghyun Park

Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Doosan submitted the revised securities registration statement for its restructuring. As suggested in this post, the merger ratio remains...

Sanghyun Park

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible

We see 5 ADDs and 6 DELETEs in the KOSPI 200 Index Rebal in December 2024 but as always this early, there are lots of caveats. We think the Hanwha...

Travis Lundy

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