Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If stocks close above the appraisal prices on the 10th, NPS will support the merger; otherwise, they’ll abstain to secure their appraisal rights.</li>
<li>Due to cancellation risk hitting the ceiling, NPS will likely exercise half its position and start buybacks after the results.</li>
<li>With both stocks heavily weighted in KOSPI 200, NPS is likely to opt for a tight buyback window, boosting chances for upward price action on Doosan's shares in that period.</li>
</ul>


If stocks close above the appraisal prices on the 10th, NPS will support the merger; otherwise, they’ll abstain to secure their appraisal rights.
Due to cancellation risk hitting the ceiling, NPS will likely exercise half its position and start buybacks after the results.
With both stocks heavily weighted in KOSPI 200, NPS is likely to opt for a tight buyback window, boosting chances for upward price action on Doosan's shares in that period.


Flow Dynamics from NPS Exercising Appraisal Rights on Doosan Merger

<ul>
<li>The big question is how to cash in on the dissenters' rights spread for Robotics. The main concern is cancellation risk, but the FSS doesn’t seem too negative on approval.</li>
<li>To sustain nuclear momentum, Enerbility needs heavy borrowing for facility investments, requiring a lower debt ratio. Offloading debt-heavy Bobcat is a move shareholders might support.</li>
<li>With NPS unlikely to ignore the government's nuclear push, Robotics' spread could narrow quickly. Despite cancellation risk and no hedge, the remaining juice makes an outright position worth considering.</li>
</ul>


The big question is how to cash in on the dissenters' rights spread for Robotics. The main concern is cancellation risk, but the FSS doesn’t seem too negative on approval.
To sustain nuclear momentum, Enerbility needs heavy borrowing for facility investments, requiring a lower debt ratio. Offloading debt-heavy Bobcat is a move shareholders might support.
With NPS unlikely to ignore the government's nuclear push, Robotics' spread could narrow quickly. Despite cancellation risk and no hedge, the remaining juice makes an outright position worth considering.


Doosan’s Tweaked Restructuring Play: My Take on Hitting Robotics' 13% Spread

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 39 stocks in Korea in October 2024, among which four are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 39 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in October and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in October are Korea Zinc, Doosan Robotics, and Kolon TissueGene. </li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 39 stocks in Korea in October 2024, among which four are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.
These 39 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in October and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in October are Korea Zinc, Doosan Robotics, and Kolon TissueGene. 


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 39 Companies in Korea in October 2024

<ul>
<li>On 29 August, the Doosan Group announced that it is cancelling the merger between Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) and Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).</li>
<li>However, the plan to split Doosan Enerbility into a newco and then merge Doosan Bobcat with the newco will remain in place.</li>
<li>Doosan Group is still trying to complete the first two portions of reorganization (Split of Doosan Enerbility and Merger Swap Between Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Robotics), resulting in continued uncertainty.  </li>
</ul>


On 29 August, the Doosan Group announced that it is cancelling the merger between Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) and Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS).
However, the plan to split Doosan Enerbility into a newco and then merge Doosan Bobcat with the newco will remain in place.
Doosan Group is still trying to complete the first two portions of reorganization (Split of Doosan Enerbility and Merger Swap Between Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Robotics), resulting in continued uncertainty.  


Doosan Group Cancels Plans to Merge Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat

<ul>
<li>Maekyung reported that Doosan Robotics and Bobcat will cancel their merger, but the merger between Robotics and Enerbility's spun-off company will proceed.</li>
<li>The merger's risks have been overblown in Robotics' stock, which might rebound. Bobcat's stock outlook is uncertain, with fading merger hopes potentially hurting short-term sentiment.</li>
<li>The Robotics-Enerbility merger might also be canceled under regulatory pressure, but this could hurt Enerbility's stock due to debt concerns; forcing the merger may increase costs.</li>
</ul>


Maekyung reported that Doosan Robotics and Bobcat will cancel their merger, but the merger between Robotics and Enerbility's spun-off company will proceed.
The merger's risks have been overblown in Robotics' stock, which might rebound. Bobcat's stock outlook is uncertain, with fading merger hopes potentially hurting short-term sentiment.
The Robotics-Enerbility merger might also be canceled under regulatory pressure, but this could hurt Enerbility's stock due to debt concerns; forcing the merger may increase costs.


Doosan Mergers: One Canceled, One Still Moving Forward

South Korea

Doosan Robotics Inc. develops and manufactures industrial equipment. The Company manufactures robots, linear actuation devices, automated production equipment, and other products. Doosan Robotics conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)

Flow Dynamics from NPS Exercising Appraisal Rights on Doosan Merger

This post dives into the flow dynamics triggered by NPS's conditional exercise of appraisal rights in the Doosan merger.

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Doosan’s Tweaked Restructuring Play: My Take on Hitting Robotics' 13% Spread

This post breaks down Doosan’s revamped restructuring plan with Enerbility and Robotics, and shares my take on how to play Robotics' 13% spread on...

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End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 39 Companies in Korea in October 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 39 stocks in Korea in October 2024, among which four are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

Doosan Group Cancels Plans to Merge Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat

Most minority investors have a Negative view of this entire Doosan Group reorganization. We would stay away from Doosan Robotics, Doosan...

Douglas Kim

Doosan Mergers: One Canceled, One Still Moving Forward

This post explores the report from Maekyung that the merger between Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat has been canceled, and examines the trading...

Sanghyun Park

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