Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft's Q4 earnings miss is undesirable to its investors, but key variables could align and cause the bank's stock to surge.</li><li>The bank's commissions-based business struggled during the past year, and M&amp;A will probably remain flat.</li><li>Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) released its fourth-quarter earnings report last week, revealing an earnings-per-share miss of 35 cents, coupled with a revenue miss of $213.4 million.</li></ul>

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft's Q4 earnings miss is undesirable to its investors, but key variables could align and cause the bank's stock to surge.The bank's commissions-based business struggled during the past year, and M&amp;A will probably remain flat.Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) released its fourth-quarter earnings report last week, revealing an earnings-per-share miss of 35 cents, coupled with a revenue miss of $213.4 million.

Deutsche Bank: Don't Worry About Q4 Earnings Miss

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for ASEAN placements from 2019-2022.</li>
<li>The following dataset includes all ASEAN placements above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 54 deals.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are based on our historical placements tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these placements.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for ASEAN placements from 2019-2022.
The following dataset includes all ASEAN placements above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 54 deals.
The deals you see in this note are based on our historical placements tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these placements.


Aequitas ASEAN Placements Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>In Part I of our Asia AT1s comments, we focus our discussions on China AT1 and our rationale on why we believe that China AT1s, especially those of China G-SIBs, offer more predictable return.</li><li>To start with, the return predictability of AT1s are subject to 1) likelihood of loss absorption; 2) likelihood of cancellation of non-cumulative distribution; and 3) likelihood of being called, especially on the first call dates.</li><li>So far, there is no precedent on the principal of the AT1s of Chinese G- SIBs being written down or converted into equity.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Part I of our Asia AT1s comments, we focus our discussions on China AT1 and our rationale on why we believe that China AT1s, especially those of China G-SIBs, offer more predictable return.To start with, the return predictability of AT1s are subject to 1) likelihood of loss absorption; 2) likelihood of cancellation of non-cumulative distribution; and 3) likelihood of being called, especially on the first call dates.So far, there is no precedent on the principal of the AT1s of Chinese G- SIBs being written down or converted into equity.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian AT1s Part I – Our picks on Chinese G-SIBs AT1s

United Kingdom

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DBK1 LI)

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Deutsche Bank: Don't Worry About Q4 Earnings Miss

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft's Q4 earnings miss is undesirable to its investors, but key variables could align and cause the bank's stock to...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Aequitas ASEAN Placements Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for ASEAN placements from 2019-2022, which includes all ASEAN placements above...

Ethan Aw

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

Asian AT1s Part I – Our picks on Chinese G-SIBs AT1s

So far, there is no precedent on the principal of the AT1s of Chinese G- SIBs being written down or converted into equity.

CMB International

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