APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ol>
<li>OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.</li>
<li>Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.</li>
<li>Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.</li>
<li>OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.</li>
<li>Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.</li>
</ol><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/013/995/original/animal_spirits3.png?1475197603" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="13995"></figure><h2>Oil</h2>…

Executive Summary
OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.
Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.
Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.
OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.
Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.
Oil…

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been vocal about not bailing it out. MCorp Review believes the German Chancellor will eventually eat her words and bail out the iconic bank, but there are many past examples (UBS, ING) that indicates that: 1) Deutsche will further divest its assets in Asia; and 2) the people who buy those assets do not necessarily do well.Hence, we highlight the risk of the Tisco-Deutsche brokerage partnership unraveling in Thailand, which would benefit rival Thanachart. Our favorite bank remains SCB. Like Deutsche, SCB has some history with derivatives, and it is certainly in a different league from Deutsche's Thai partner Tisco.

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been vocal about not bailing it out. MCorp Review believes the German Chancellor will eventually eat her words and bail out the iconic bank, but there are many past examples (UBS, ING) that indicates that: 1) Deutsche will further divest its assets in Asia; and 2) the people who buy those assets do not necessarily do well.Hence, we highlight the risk of the Tisco-Deutsche brokerage partnership unraveling in Thailand, which would benefit rival Thanachart. Our favorite bank remains SCB. Like Deutsche, SCB has some history with derivatives, and it is certainly in a different league from Deutsche's Thai partner Tisco.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates<ul><li class="p1">We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.</li><li class="p1">First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.</li><li class="p1">Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.</li><li class="p1">Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.</li></ul>Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of RatesWe hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York, continue to dominate, despite a small increase in the role of Hong Kong.

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York, continue to dominate, despite a small increase in the role of Hong Kong.

London Continues to Dominate Forex Trading

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

United Kingdom

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DBK1 LI)

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Sathorn Series 5: Deutsche's Doomsday

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future...

Morningstar, Inc.

London Continues to Dominate Forex Trading

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York,...

Bixmoor

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of...

Tan Chin-Hwee

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