Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.</li>
<li>High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline</li>
<li>Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?</li>
</ul>


Chailease is facing pressure in all of its markets, Taiwan, China and Asean, with no signs of easing.
High frequency data (HFD) from Chailease gives us April monthly numbers, with double digit  net profit decline and a greater EPS decline
Credit costs are now elevated at peak levels since early FY19 for the past two quarters, and we wonder if FY24 will see far higher figures, given economic weaknesses?


Chailease - ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,271.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD16,618mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Inventec, Alchip Tech, Wistron, Delta Elec, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD81.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Chung-Hsin, Wt, Tatung, Elite Material, Mediatek, Chicony Elec, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD81.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Chung-Hsin, Wt, Tatung, Elite Material, Mediatek, Chicony Elec, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Chung-Hsin, Wt, Tatung, Elite Material, Mediatek

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,904.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD91mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Qisda, Wiwynn, Ctbc Financial, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Alchip Tech, Lite-On Tech, Novatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,904.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD91mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Qisda, Wiwynn, Ctbc Financial, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Alchip Tech, Lite-On Tech, Novatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 15th): Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Qisda, Wiwynn, Ctbc Financial

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Taiwan

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

China Development Financial Holding Corporation is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides industrial banking and trust services, including direct investment, corporate lending, underwriting, corporate finance and advise, asset management, and securities trading.

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company and Ironstone Bank.  First-Citizens serves North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.  Ironstone operates in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

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CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)

Chailease - ROA Grinding Lower on Elevated Credit Costs

Chailease shows major stresses in net profit in China and Asean, with declines also in Taiwan. Credit costs are incredibly elevated for past 2...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 17th): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Chung-Hsin, Wt, Tatung, Elite Material, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Chung-Hsin, Wt, Tatung, Elite Material,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 15th): Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Qisda, Wiwynn, Ctbc Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Qisda, Wiwynn, Ctbc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

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