Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,035.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,431mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, Cathay Financial, TSMC, Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, ASE.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,035.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,431mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, Cathay Financial, TSMC, Hon Hai, Ctbc Financial, ASE.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC

<ul>
<li>Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some</li>
<li>This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries</li>
<li>Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world</li>
</ul>


Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries
Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world


Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,832.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD11,267mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Highwealth, Acer, King Yuan Elec, Bora Pharma, Auo, TSMC, Novatek, Mediatek, Chailease, Umc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 28th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,832.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD11,267mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Highwealth, Acer, King Yuan Elec, Bora Pharma, Auo, TSMC, Novatek, Mediatek, Chailease, Umc.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 28th): Highwealth, Acer, King Yuan Elec, Bora Pharma, Auo, TSMC

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

Taiwan

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

China Development Financial Holding Corporation is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides industrial banking and trust services, including direct investment, corporate lending, underwriting, corporate finance and advise, asset management, and securities trading.

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company and Ironstone Bank.  First-Citizens serves North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.  Ironstone operates in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

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CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 12th): Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Umc, Alchip Tech, Quanta Computer, Chung-Hsin,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Taiwan's banks may be unique with reasonable tech exposure, a possible driver for some of the best loan volume anywhere, with strong credit...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 28th): Highwealth, Acer, King Yuan Elec, Bora Pharma, Auo, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Highwealth, Acer, King Yuan Elec, Bora Pharma,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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