Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Our latest monthly checklist of bullish and bearish influences on the oil markets, with their relative weights and the result of their interplay, concludes:<ul>
<li>A mildly bullish outlook for the near-term</li>
<li>A neutral outlook for the next three months</li>
</ul>Read on for details on how we arrived at these views and what they translate to in terms of benchmark crude prices.

Our latest monthly checklist of bullish and bearish influences on the oil markets, with their relative weights and the result of their interplay, concludes:
A mildly bullish outlook for the near-term
A neutral outlook for the next three months
Read on for details on how we arrived at these views and what they translate to in terms of benchmark crude prices. 

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Commodities are on the rise again with the clearest sign coming from Oil which posted a strong bullish weekly reversal and is expected to go back to the highs. US breakevens have also rebounded and further gains along with commodities are likely to unfold.The expectations of US data points remain high which is keeping a lid on US nominal yields in the short term.Combining the above, lower negative real yields in the US should be seen in the short term just as we saw in late July when Oil rallied from similar levels. This mix is undoubtedly helping precious metals. The month end’s closing price on Gold is the next important development to watch, especially if we close above $1,834. Silver is also on the up towards $25. In the end the USD remains on the back foot.

Commodities are on the rise again with the clearest sign coming from Oil which posted a strong bullish weekly reversal and is expected to go back to the highs. US breakevens have also rebounded and further gains along with commodities are likely to unfold.The expectations of US data points remain high which is keeping a lid on US nominal yields in the short term.Combining the above, lower negative real yields in the US should be seen in the short term just as we saw in late July when Oil rallied from similar levels. This mix is undoubtedly helping precious metals. The month end’s closing price on Gold is the next important development to watch, especially if we close above $1,834. Silver is also on the up towards $25. In the end the USD remains on the back foot. 

Lower Real Yields with Higher Oil Supports Gold

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.70.50 to 71 is the ideal short level for WTI but worth picking at the 69 resistance level in the event we fade early. Barring a hard decline then look to re cycle near 70+. 71.20 and 72 are key resistance levels and our risk pivot.Hurricane Ida should lend support for oil to test the trendline barrier.Well behaved descending wedges tend to be corrective patterns and the next slide toward the 58 support will set up a long in oil to test wedge resistance that will come in near the 67 level with time translation. Clearing wedge resistance would open the way to re test the macro barrier at 76/77 in the later part of Q4.

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.70.50 to 71 is the ideal short level for WTI but worth picking at the 69 resistance level in the event we fade early. Barring a hard decline then look to re cycle near 70+. 71.20 and 72 are key resistance levels and our risk pivot.Hurricane Ida should lend support for oil to test the trendline barrier.Well behaved descending wedges tend to be corrective patterns and the next slide toward the 58 support will set up a long in oil to test wedge resistance that will come in near the 67 level with time translation. Clearing wedge resistance would open the way to re test the macro barrier at 76/77 in the later part of Q4.

In Asia the market that still looks attractive is India’s Nifty as it trades near the trend highs. Previous examples of a rally and breakouts on the Nifty Index saw the market move more than 10% from the base. Since we started from a recent low of 15,513, we could expect at least 17,064 if not the 17,400 area before seeing a consolidation or a meaningful pullback.Such a move coupled with USDINR looking like it could make it to the base of the range - approximately 72.50 - would put the Nifty in USD terms at 240 which is still 7% above current levels.Indeed, it might even be in India’s interest to see a slightly stronger currency given the trade deficit and the rising Oil price.

In Asia the market that still looks attractive is India’s Nifty as it trades near the trend highs. Previous examples of a rally and breakouts on the Nifty Index saw the market move more than 10% from the base. Since we started from a recent low of 15,513, we could expect at least 17,064 if not the 17,400 area before seeing a consolidation or a meaningful pullback.Such a move coupled with USDINR looking like it could make it to the base of the range - approximately 72.50 - would put the Nifty in USD terms at 240 which is still 7% above current levels.Indeed, it might even be in India’s interest to see a slightly stronger currency given the trade deficit and the rising Oil price.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude was hammered by the Delta wave and a taper tantrum in the wider financial markets in August. Our view on prices is mildly bullish in the near...

Vandana Hari

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Lower Real Yields with Higher Oil Supports Gold

The bullish reversal in Oil combined with lower nominal yields gives rise to trends that were seen in late July. Lower 'real' yields, higher Gold...

Shyam Devani

WTI Sell Levels

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.

Thomas Schroeder

India Markets Refreshed

India's Nifty is still in an uptrend and looks even more attractive in USD terms as USDINR threatens to take out supports.

Shyam Devani

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