Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.</li><li>Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.</li><li><p>Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?</p></li></ul>

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side data this week.Instead, we will have a look at some of the most important indicators in the Energy space as oil markets have left blood on the streets lately, leading Saudi Arabia to once again “call out” short sellers.Is there a fundamental downturn in demand or is this recent trend in oil once again driven by the positioning of paper markets?

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

<ul><li>This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated.</li><li>Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord, and after that look at this week’s SLOOS release.</li><li>Then it is time to talk geopolitics and Ukraine.</li></ul>

This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated.Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord, and after that look at this week’s SLOOS release.Then it is time to talk geopolitics and Ukraine.

5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.</li>
<li>We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.</li>
<li>We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.</li>
</ul>


Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.


Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Watch: The perfect bull-signal delivered by Olaf Scholz?

We typically release our weekly EIA Watch on Thursdays but given this press release from the EIA, we will not be able to update the demand side...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Riyadh Accord, Sloos, Ukraine, USD

This week we would like to draw your attention to our monthly macro regime indicator which has been updated. Then we’ll argue for a Riyadh Accord,...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel. We envisage a...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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