Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.</li><li>The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).</li><li>The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.</li></ul>

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.</li><li>Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.</li><li>By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. </li></ul>

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. 

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea</li><li>This week saw another increase in container freight rate.</li><li>Seasonality working against higher freight rates. That changes by April. </li></ul>

Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red SeaThis week saw another increase in container freight rate.Seasonality working against higher freight rates. That changes by April. 

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

<ul><li>Key take aways: OPEC losing its impact on the market due to non-OPEC members productionFor how long can Saudi Arabia pull all the weight?</li><li>Europe and China would be the biggest winner in a OPEC breakdownHi and welcome to this year’s first ‘Out of the Box’.</li><li>Readers of our energy coverage will know that we have been very skeptical of the developments around OPEC and the crude oil markets.</li></ul>

Key take aways: OPEC losing its impact on the market due to non-OPEC members productionFor how long can Saudi Arabia pull all the weight?Europe and China would be the biggest winner in a OPEC breakdownHi and welcome to this year’s first ‘Out of the Box’.Readers of our energy coverage will know that we have been very skeptical of the developments around OPEC and the crude oil markets.

Out of the Box #26: OPEC is dead in it current form

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.</li><li>They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.</li><li>The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic...

Steno Research

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months...

The Commodity Report

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

Takeaway: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea, with this week seeing another increase in container freight rate.

Steno Research

Out of the Box #26: OPEC is dead in it current form

Key take aways: OPEC losing its impact on the market due to non-OPEC members production. For how long can Saudi Arabia pull all the weight? Europe...

Steno Research

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

In this podcast episode, the hosts introduce themselves, discuss the recurring risk between China and Taiwan, acknowledge their past incorrect...

Odd Lots

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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