bullish
How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut
SUMMARY
- In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.
- Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.
- By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic.
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