Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.</li>
<li>Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.</li>
<li>OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.</li>
</ul>


As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.
Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.
OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.


Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

Srinidhi Raghavendra

<ul>
<li>Oil majors to extend voluntary production cuts with an eye to pushing crude oil prices to $100/barrel.</li>
<li>Demand for oil at record highs, fueled by strong travel, increased oil usage in power production &amp; solid Chinese petrochemicals activity.</li>
<li>Refiners are reaping near-record profits as their throughputs are set to reach a summer peak of 83.9m bpd in August.</li>
</ul>


Oil majors to extend voluntary production cuts with an eye to pushing crude oil prices to $100/barrel.
Demand for oil at record highs, fueled by strong travel, increased oil usage in power production &amp; solid Chinese petrochemicals activity.
Refiners are reaping near-record profits as their throughputs are set to reach a summer peak of 83.9m bpd in August.


Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

<ul>
<li>US commercial crude oil inventory build-up slows while refined products’ withdrawal accelerates.</li>
<li>OPEC+ members announced the extension of their voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day to end of June (from end of March as previously announced).</li>
<li>US refinery utilisation rates show signs of a speedy recovery, rises for the second consecutive week and jumps to 84.9%.</li>
</ul>


US commercial crude oil inventory build-up slows while refined products’ withdrawal accelerates.
OPEC+ members announced the extension of their voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day to end of June (from end of March as previously announced).
US refinery utilisation rates show signs of a speedy recovery, rises for the second consecutive week and jumps to 84.9%.


Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.</li><li>The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.</li><li>CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

<ul>
<li>US crude oil inventories buildup outpaces gasoline and distillate withdrawal for the week ending on 23/Feb.</li>
<li>Refinery utilisation rates rose by 0.9 percentage points on a weekly basis to 81.5%, for the first time in 2024.</li>
<li>Disparity between crude oil and refined petroleum inventories to remain in the near term as refinery utilisation rates are yet to recover completely after the maintenance season.</li>
</ul>


US crude oil inventories buildup outpaces gasoline and distillate withdrawal for the week ending on 23/Feb.
Refinery utilisation rates rose by 0.9 percentage points on a weekly basis to 81.5%, for the first time in 2024.
Disparity between crude oil and refined petroleum inventories to remain in the near term as refinery utilisation rates are yet to recover completely after the maintenance season.


Unexpected Surge in US Crude Oil Stockpile Highlights Inventory Discrepancies

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

Declining oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions support oil prices, Continued improvement in refinery utilisation levels indicates...

Mint Finance

Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

Oil prices surged nearly 3% to a fresh 10-month high yesterday, approaching $100/barrel, as Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported lower...

Mint Finance

Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported

US crude oil inventory build-up slows as refined products' withdrawal accelerates, OPEC+ extends supply cut, US refinery utilization rates on the...

Mint Finance

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.

The Commodity Report

Unexpected Surge in US Crude Oil Stockpile Highlights Inventory Discrepancies

US crude oil inventories are rising faster than gasoline and distillate withdrawals, with refinery utilization rates increasing for the first time...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

Declining oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions support oil prices, Continued improvement in refinery utilisation levels indicates...

Mint Finance

Supply Tightness, Robust Demand Could Push Crude Oil Prices Into Triple Digit Territory

Oil prices surged nearly 3% to a fresh 10-month high yesterday, approaching $100/barrel, as Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported lower...

Mint Finance

Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported

​US crude oil inventory build-up slows as refined products' withdrawal accelerates, OPEC+ extends supply cut, US refinery utilization rates on the...

Mint Finance

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.

The Commodity Report

Unexpected Surge in US Crude Oil Stockpile Highlights Inventory Discrepancies

​US crude oil inventories are rising faster than gasoline and distillate withdrawals, with refinery utilization rates increasing for the first time...

Mint Finance

US crude oil inventory build-up slows as refined products' withdrawal accelerates, OPEC+ extends supply cut, US refinery utilization rates on the...

US crude oil inventories are rising faster than gasoline and distillate withdrawals, with refinery utilization rates increasing for the first time...