Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable.</li><li>What a week in macro and markets, huh?</li><li>The CPI print out of the US confirmed our tilt towards a reacceleration of inflation and the difficulties Powell faces in getting to the 2% target.</li></ul>

Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable.What a week in macro and markets, huh?The CPI print out of the US confirmed our tilt towards a reacceleration of inflation and the difficulties Powell faces in getting to the 2% target.

Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated</li><li>Even larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.</li><li>Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.</li></ul>

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimatedEven larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.</li><li>Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.</li><li>When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.</li></ul>

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.</li><li>The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell

Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable. What a week in macro and...

Steno Research

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated

The Commodity Report

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a...

Steno Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

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