Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .</li>
<li>Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.</li>
<li>This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .
Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.
This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.


Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.</li><li>The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.</li><li>Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.</li></ul>

During last week, the International Energy Association (IEA) as well as OPEC both announced that demand for oil is slowing, revising down previous demand forecasts for the year and beyond.The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone its plans to ease output cuts, the IEA stated.Meanwhile, the growth from the US won’t be able to offset the slowdown from China, according to the agency.

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.</li>
<li>Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.</li>
<li>The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. </li>
</ul>


Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.
Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.
The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. 


Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: China will be a key player for gold markets. MBS suffering even more as crude tumbles. High frequency indicators don’t scream recession in the US. </li>
<li>Hi and welcome to this week’s Energy Cable! We will do a short note this week as many of you are mostly trying to extinguish fires due to the sell-offs in markets.</li>
<li>We have two major themes regarding commodities that we’ll focus on today, namely gold and crude.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: China will be a key player for gold markets. MBS suffering even more as crude tumbles. High frequency indicators don’t scream recession in the US. 
Hi and welcome to this week’s Energy Cable! We will do a short note this week as many of you are mostly trying to extinguish fires due to the sell-offs in markets.
We have two major themes regarding commodities that we’ll focus on today, namely gold and crude.


Energy Cable: Why Chinese Flows Govern Gold Markets, Not Western Cutting Cycles

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacityOther commodities like crude and its...

Steno Research

Copper Inventories Back at Pre-Covid Levels & Oil Demand Cuts Everywhere

The world is seeing a major deceleration in oil demand growth led by China, with inventories set to rise next year even if OPEC+ were to postpone...

The Commodity Report

Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Hurricane Debby impacted natural gas prices by reducing electricity demand. The Gulf of Mexico now accounts for less than 2% of US nat-gas output,...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: Why Chinese Flows Govern Gold Markets, Not Western Cutting Cycles

Take aways: China will be a key player for gold marketsMBS suffering even more as crude tumblesHigh frequency indicators don’t scream recession in...

Steno Research

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