Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Equity Bottom-Up

INVESTMENT VIEW:  A recent meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its Indonesian biodiesel allocations; 2) rebound potential for palm oil pricing given its current discount to diesel prices; 3) restructurings &amp; deleveraging from its bloated working capital and long-term investment account.
We stick with our earlier published note calling for Golden Agri (GAR) as a 5-year double potential: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unloved-undervalued-adding-golden-agri-to-our-list-of-5-yr-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22237">Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles</a>

INVESTMENT VIEW:  A recent meeting with Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its Indonesian biodiesel allocations; 2) rebound potential for palm oil pricing given its current discount to diesel prices; 3) restructurings &amp; deleveraging from its bloated working capital and long-term investment account.
We stick with our earlier published note calling for Golden Agri (GAR) as a 5-year double potential: Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles

Golden Agri Management Meeting Highlights Wins from Biodiesel & Restructuring Potential

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from <a href="mailto:jo@mtsresearch.com" target="_blank">joanne@mtsresearch.com</a>.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from joanne@mtsresearch.com.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22869" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1">Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)</a></h2>WTI ended the week at US$ 71.49/bbl while Brent ended at US$ 80.5/bbl, both c.4% lower for the week. This was driven by a surprisingly large build in US inventories for the week and limited disruption to GoM production infrastructure from Hurricane Michael. However, a fresh diplomatic crisis over the weekend threatens to boost crude oil risk premia this week, with the US calling for an investigation over the disappearance of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, and Saudi Arabia in turn vowing to respond strongly in the event of US sanctions. Curiously, this crisis provides an opportunity for a detante between the US and Turkey, even as President Trump finds himself in the unenviable position of having to choose between lower oil prices and sending a strong message to Saudi Arabia.

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)WTI ended the week at US$ 71.49/bbl while Brent ended at US$ 80.5/bbl, both c.4% lower for the week. This was driven by a surprisingly large build in US inventories for the week and limited disruption to GoM production infrastructure from Hurricane Michael. However, a fresh diplomatic crisis over the weekend threatens to boost crude oil risk premia this week, with the US calling for an investigation over the disappearance of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, and Saudi Arabia in turn vowing to respond strongly in the event of US sanctions. Curiously, this crisis provides an opportunity for a detante between the US and Turkey, even as President Trump finds himself in the unenviable position of having to choose between lower oil prices and sending a strong message to Saudi Arabia.

Fear an speculation have taken control of the oil market and spurred benchmark crude futures to fresh 4-year highs in recent weeks.
The bulls appear to be factoring in the worst-case scenario, involving a decimation of Iranian crude exports under a hardline stance from Messrs Bolton and Pompeo, and betting that OPEC+ will be running on fumes by the time US sanctions against Iran have their full impact.
Iranian exports are not going down to zero and OPEC's 15 members have opened the spigots, as the latest production numbers for September show. 
The recent weeks' heady rally of crude prices notwithstanding, we are advocating caution and don't recommend buying into the $100 chant, no matter how many times you hear it.

Fear an speculation have taken control of the oil market and spurred benchmark crude futures to fresh 4-year highs in recent weeks.
The bulls appear to be factoring in the worst-case scenario, involving a decimation of Iranian crude exports under a hardline stance from Messrs Bolton and Pompeo, and betting that OPEC+ will be running on fumes by the time US sanctions against Iran have their full impact.
Iranian exports are not going down to zero and OPEC's 15 members have opened the spigots, as the latest production numbers for September show. 
The recent weeks' heady rally of crude prices notwithstanding, we are advocating caution and don't recommend buying into the $100 chant, no matter how many times you hear it.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rallies on Fear and Frenzy. Don't Get Carried Away.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Golden Agri Management Meeting Highlights Wins from Biodiesel & Restructuring Potential

INVESTMENT VIEW: A recent meeting with Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its...

Charles Spencer

S&P 500: How Serious Is This Sell-Off?

Serious. It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review. The previous...

Peter Beuttell

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of...

Vandana Hari

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 26

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)WTI ended the week at US$ 71.49/bbl while Brent ended at US$ 80.5/bbl, both c.4% lower for the week. This was driven by...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rallies on Fear and Frenzy. Don't Get Carried Away.

Fear an speculation have taken control of the oil market and spurred benchmark crude futures to fresh 4-year highs in recent weeks. The bulls...

Vandana Hari

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