IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Widjaja family at S$0.31 per share, a 12.7% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.275 (24 March).</li>
<li>The offer is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges and implies a 74.0% discount to the last reported NAV per share of S$1.191 (30 June 2024).</li>
<li>The offer has not been declared final. As the Widjaja family aims to privatise Sinarmas, a bump is likely to secure the required minority acceptances. </li>
</ul>



Sinarmas Land (SML SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Widjaja family at S$0.31 per share, a 12.7% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.275 (24 March).
The offer is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges and implies a 74.0% discount to the last reported NAV per share of S$1.191 (30 June 2024).
The offer has not been declared final. As the Widjaja family aims to privatise Sinarmas, a bump is likely to secure the required minority acceptances. 


Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Widjaja Family’s Light Voluntary Unconditional Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hygon Information Technology C / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.</li>
<li>With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc-1be53f2f-f106-4f4f-b9be-5cf1341e76ae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36111:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMI SP)</a> fails the liquidity test and could be sold by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-straits-times-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35880:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador (EMP PM)</a> will also be sold by global index trackers in March and the stock should remain under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> is ranked ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ascott-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6560:1" rel="noopener">CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS SP)</a> by 9% on full market cap and should be added to the ETF in March.</li>
</ul>



Emperador (EMI SP) fails the liquidity test and could be sold by the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (STTF SP) in March.

Emperador (EMP PM) will also be sold by global index trackers in March and the stock should remain under pressure for the next few weeks.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) is ranked ahead of CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS SP) by 9% on full market cap and should be added to the ETF in March.


STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Just over 40 Singapore-listed stocks that posted price gains over the past year, maintain single-digit P/E ratios and double-digit ROEs.</li><li>Aside from Singapore Airlines, the most traded stocks of the cohort over the past 5 weeks were Geo Energy Res, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Valuetronics, Marco Polo Marine, Ley Choon, Bumitama Agri and Stamford Land.</li><li>Among these stocks, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Bumitama Agri are currently trading below their Consensus Estimate Target Prices.</li></ul>

Just over 40 Singapore-listed stocks that posted price gains over the past year, maintain single-digit P/E ratios and double-digit ROEs.Aside from Singapore Airlines, the most traded stocks of the cohort over the past 5 weeks were Geo Energy Res, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Valuetronics, Marco Polo Marine, Ley Choon, Bumitama Agri and Stamford Land.Among these stocks, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Bumitama Agri are currently trading below their Consensus Estimate Target Prices.

Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel.  The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)

Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.

Arun George

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Widjaja Family’s Light Voluntary Unconditional Offer

The offer is light but has not been declared final. As the Widjaja family aims to privatise Sinarmas, a bump is likely to secure the required...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

Emperador could be deleted from the STTF at the March rebalance and replaced with Frasers Centrepoint Trust. Emperador (EMP PM) will also be...

Brian Freitas

Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year

Just over 40 Singapore-listed stocks that posted price gains over the past year, maintain single-digit P/E ratios and double-digit ROEs. Aside...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)