Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week</li>
<li>Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low</li>
<li>Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone</li>
</ul>


Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week
Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low
Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone


The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  </li><li>The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.</li><li>If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.</li></ul>

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: How the war in Ukraine is rattling China’s energy transition</li><li>Regional bank under corruption probe faces more trouble after online savings accounts frozen</li><li>China’s services sector slumps further as Covid battle intensifies, Caixin PMI shows</li></ul>

In Depth: How the war in Ukraine is rattling China’s energy transitionRegional bank under corruption probe faces more trouble after online savings accounts frozenChina’s services sector slumps further as Covid battle intensifies, Caixin PMI shows

CX Daily: How the War in Ukraine Is Rattling China’s Energy Transition

<ul><li>In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos</li><li>Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid</li><li>Foreign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace</li></ul>

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaosNio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to CovidForeign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023,...

The Commodity Report

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

Positioning and Imbalances

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022. The assumption has been...

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: How the War in Ukraine Is Rattling China’s Energy Transition

In Depth: How the war in Ukraine is rattling China’s energy transition. Regional bank under corruption probe faces more trouble after online...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos. Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)