Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Founder

Market Thinker

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. </li><li>There is the usual talk of ‘Dr Copper, the metal with a PhD in Economics and the (tedious) refrain that equity markets are full of economic naïfs, while bond markets are full of wise old economists</li><li>Except of course, markets don’t actually work like that and, while the market is usually a much better indicator of the real world than any of the models employed by experts, we need to understand <em>what</em> it is telling us at any given time</li></ul>

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. There is the usual talk of ‘Dr Copper, the metal with a PhD in Economics and the (tedious) refrain that equity markets are full of economic naïfs, while bond markets are full of wise old economistsExcept of course, markets don’t actually work like that and, while the market is usually a much better indicator of the real world than any of the models employed by experts, we need to understand what it is telling us at any given time

Prices, Probabilities and Predictions