Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Evergrande, Spark Infra, Naspers/Prosus, Boral, China Conch Ventures

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

On 3 June, President Biden amended Executive Order 13959 with respect to the threat posed by the military-industrial complex of the People’s Republic of China, and expanded the list of companies to include entities that operate in the defense and related materiel sector or the surveillance technology sector in China, or own, or are owned, or are controlled by persons that operate in the above sectors.There were a few entities that appeared in Trump's list that were dropped while there were new entities that were added to the current list.Some major changes were that the name of the list was changed from Communist Chinese Military Companies (CCMC) to Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (CMIC), the list would be maintained by the Treasury Department as opposed to the Defense Department, and restrictions on subsidiaries would apply only if the subsidiary was explicitly named in the list.It has been reported in the media, quoting senior officials, that the list will be updated on a rolling basis. As we were typing out the Insight, Reuters published an article that says <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-biden-china-investment/analysis-more-chinese-companies-could-fall-under-bidens-broader-investment-ban-idUSL2N2NM13H" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more Chinese companies could be added to the investment ban</a>.In this Insight, we try to identify some of the subsidiaries of companies that could be added to the CMIC list where the parent entity is already included on the list.

On 3 June, President Biden amended Executive Order 13959 with respect to the threat posed by the military-industrial complex of the People’s Republic of China, and expanded the list of companies to include entities that operate in the defense and related materiel sector or the surveillance technology sector in China, or own, or are owned, or are controlled by persons that operate in the above sectors.There were a few entities that appeared in Trump's list that were dropped while there were new entities that were added to the current list.Some major changes were that the name of the list was changed from Communist Chinese Military Companies (CCMC) to Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (CMIC), the list would be maintained by the Treasury Department as opposed to the Defense Department, and restrictions on subsidiaries would apply only if the subsidiary was explicitly named in the list.It has been reported in the media, quoting senior officials, that the list will be updated on a rolling basis. As we were typing out the Insight, Reuters published an article that says more Chinese companies could be added to the investment ban.In this Insight, we try to identify some of the subsidiaries of companies that could be added to the CMIC list where the parent entity is already included on the list.

POTUS Executive Order: Potential Additions to the CMIC List

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

The 1Q21 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> (CCCC) should provide comfort to the market given it showed the sustained pace of earnings recovery. Recurring profit grew 87.5% YoY, or 13.3% versus 1Q19, driven by sharp surge in revenue and good YoY margin expansion on remarkable cost control performance.  We believe CCCC has kick-started an encouraging FY21 - its 1Q21 profit already almost equals to the 1H20 profit. Adding to that is the enchanting new contract addition momentum in the quarter - up 80.3% YoY and 24.5% QoQ, providing good security and visibility for its earnings outlook. All these evidences are supportive to our relentless call that its 12-month forward PER of 2.7x and P/B of 0.2x are just too depressed.

The 1Q21 result of China Communications Construction (1800 HK) (CCCC) should provide comfort to the market given it showed the sustained pace of earnings recovery. Recurring profit grew 87.5% YoY, or 13.3% versus 1Q19, driven by sharp surge in revenue and good YoY margin expansion on remarkable cost control performance.  We believe CCCC has kick-started an encouraging FY21 - its 1Q21 profit already almost equals to the 1H20 profit. Adding to that is the enchanting new contract addition momentum in the quarter - up 80.3% YoY and 24.5% QoQ, providing good security and visibility for its earnings outlook. All these evidences are supportive to our relentless call that its 12-month forward PER of 2.7x and P/B of 0.2x are just too depressed.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Kick-Start a Rewarding Year

We had a call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> with positive takeaways. We see management taking action to address the issues of high gearing and slow cash payback, good progress in infrastructure REIT issuance, potential improvement in profitability and limited impact of the Sino-US tension. The company is also exploring various options to support its share prices.After a 13% rebound since the exclusion from MSCI global indexes, there still exists significant upside potential for CCCC, in our view. Its 12-month forward P/B multiple of 0.21x remains cheap. With improvement in profitability and a narrowing in the H-A discount, we expect re-rating to continue - a return to 1SD below historical average P/B will imply 66% upside.

We had a call with China Communications Construction (1800 HK) with positive takeaways. We see management taking action to address the issues of high gearing and slow cash payback, good progress in infrastructure REIT issuance, potential improvement in profitability and limited impact of the Sino-US tension. The company is also exploring various options to support its share prices.After a 13% rebound since the exclusion from MSCI global indexes, there still exists significant upside potential for CCCC, in our view. Its 12-month forward P/B multiple of 0.21x remains cheap. With improvement in profitability and a narrowing in the H-A discount, we expect re-rating to continue - a return to 1SD below historical average P/B will imply 66% upside.  

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Positive Takeaways from Call with Company

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, JD.com, Toyota, NTT, Jardines, Indices/Exec. Orders, Tianneng

China

CRRC Corporation Limited manufactures rolling stock products. The Company produces locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, vehicles key components, and other products. CRRC also provides vehicle repairing, investment management, and other services.

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CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Evergrande, Spark Infra, Naspers/Prosus, Boral, China Conch Ventures

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

POTUS Executive Order: Potential Additions to the CMIC List

There could be more entities added to Biden's Executive Order if US-China relations continue to worsen. Defense & surveillance stocks, plus subs of...

Brian Freitas

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Kick-Start a Rewarding Year

CCCC logged a sharp earnings revival in 1Q21 on the back of a surge in revenue and solid margin expanson; and new contracts added also surged. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Positive Takeaways from Call with Company

Positive messages from a call with CCCC and we expect re-rating to continue after the recent 13% rebound in share price. At 0.21x P/B, the stock is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, JD.com, Toyota, NTT, Jardines, Indices/Exec. Orders, Tianneng

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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