Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 8 March 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> made a cash acquisition for the 15% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a>'s share capital it did not already own.</li>
<li>The US$33/share Offer price was arguably light. But with the amalgamation requiring 75% approval and Matheson providing an irrevocable to vote its 84.89% stake for the transaction, it was done.</li>
<li>On the 20 April 2022, the Bermuda Court dismissed Jardine's application to strike out dissenting shareholders who acquired shares after the Offer was announced. Last month, Jardine lost its appeal. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 8 March 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) made a cash acquisition for the 15% of Jardine Strategic (JS SP)'s share capital it did not already own.
The US$33/share Offer price was arguably light. But with the amalgamation requiring 75% approval and Matheson providing an irrevocable to vote its 84.89% stake for the transaction, it was done.
On the 20 April 2022, the Bermuda Court dismissed Jardine's application to strike out dissenting shareholders who acquired shares after the Offer was announced. Last month, Jardine lost its appeal. 


Jardine Strategic's Dissentient Shareholders: The Sensible And Workable Approach

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a>'s announced it intends to raise $800mn after reporting a statutory $1.26bn 1H23 loss.</li>
<li>This equity raising will be broken down into a A$685mn non-renounceable entitlement Offer and a A$115mn institutional placement. The equity raising is fully underwritten. </li>
<li>Star also announced it has secured covenant relief through to June 2025. Star's immediate focus is to get its house in order and prove its suitability to hold casino licences. </li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)'s announced it intends to raise $800mn after reporting a statutory $1.26bn 1H23 loss.
This equity raising will be broken down into a A$685mn non-renounceable entitlement Offer and a A$115mn institutional placement. The equity raising is fully underwritten. 
Star also announced it has secured covenant relief through to June 2025. Star's immediate focus is to get its house in order and prove its suitability to hold casino licences. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   </li>
<li>There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. </li>
<li>Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.</li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   
There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. 
Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a> said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.</li>
<li>But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. </li>
<li>Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?</li>
</ul>


In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.
But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. 
Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?


Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

Australia

Crown Resorts Ltd. operates and manages gaming and entertainment facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas and retail outlets. The Company also develops hotels and conference centre facilities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crown Resorts (CWN AU)

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

Jardine Strategic's Dissentient Shareholders: The Sensible And Workable Approach

In April 2022, Jardine's application to strike out dissenters who acquired shares after the Offer was announced was dismissed. Last month, Jardines...

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment's A$800mn Buffer

On balance, I think the negative news circling Stat Entertainment is baked into the share price. I'd, tentatively, be wading back in.

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

On balance, I think (most of) the bad news is baked in. The wild card is the impact of any new NSW tax regime. This is one investment for the brave.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

Jardine Strategic's Dissentient Shareholders: The Sensible And Workable Approach

In April 2022, Jardine's application to strike out dissenters who acquired shares after the Offer was announced was dismissed. Last month, Jardines...

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment's A$800mn Buffer

On balance, I think the negative news circling Stat Entertainment is baked into the share price. I'd, tentatively, be wading back in.

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

On balance, I think (most of) the bad news is baked in. The wild card is the impact of any new NSW tax regime. This is one investment for the brave.

David Blennerhassett

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....