Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology (002701 CH)</a>, via the Offeror Huarui Fengquan Development Limited, has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0829/2024082902348.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> SAMR has given its approval. ORG still requires MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE to sign off. </li>
<li>Interestingly, SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings, the competing/initial bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, secured MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE before SAMR clearance. Champion's regulatory pre-conditions took a little over seven months to secure.</li>
<li>
What now? SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator (overlapping with NDRC). So this is positive for ORG. However, I'd still stick to ORG's pre-condition long stop in terms of timing. </li>
</ul>



ORG Technology (002701 CH), via the Offeror Huarui Fengquan Development Limited, has announced SAMR has given its approval. ORG still requires MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE to sign off. 
Interestingly, SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings, the competing/initial bidder for CPMC (906 HK), secured MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE before SAMR clearance. Champion's regulatory pre-conditions took a little over seven months to secure.

What now? SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator (overlapping with NDRC). So this is positive for ORG. However, I'd still stick to ORG's pre-condition long stop in terms of timing. 


CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG's Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> Board recommends that shareholders accept Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer, which the IFA opines is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The Board's carefully crafted and suitably caveated recommendation acknowledges that shares continue to trade through terms and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>’s HK$7.21 offer is higher but preconditional. </li>
<li>Based on ORG's shareholding/irrevocable and volume traded above terms, Changping Industrial’s offer has little chance of success. It remains a question of when, not if, Changping Industrial will bump.</li>
</ul>


The CPMC Holdings (906 HK) Board recommends that shareholders accept Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer, which the IFA opines is fair and reasonable.
The Board's carefully crafted and suitably caveated recommendation acknowledges that shares continue to trade through terms and ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s HK$7.21 offer is higher but preconditional. 
Based on ORG's shareholding/irrevocable and volume traded above terms, Changping Industrial’s offer has little chance of success. It remains a question of when, not if, Changping Industrial will bump.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): A Carefully Caveated Board Recommendation of Changping Industrial’s Offer

<ul>
<li>On the 30th July 2024, packaging play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> dispatched the Composite Document for the HK$6.87/share, in cash, Offer from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0813/2024081300005.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Response Document</a>, including the IFA opinion (with a fair &amp; reasonable conclusion) has now been dispatched. </li>
<li>However, the focus remains on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer, which is currently negotiating the necessary regulatory approvals. </li>
</ul>


On the 30th July 2024, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) dispatched the Composite Document for the HK$6.87/share, in cash, Offer from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.
The Response Document, including the IFA opinion (with a fair &amp; reasonable conclusion) has now been dispatched. 
However, the focus remains on ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer, which is currently negotiating the necessary regulatory approvals. 


CPMC (906 HK) Responds To Champion's Offer

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Baosteel's choice to maintain its original Offer may partly reflect its "confidence" in the deal. If investors bet that Huarui Offer will succeed, they need to bear some risks.</li>
<li>If investors choose to arbitrage at HK$7.21/share, annualized return is 9% assuming privatization would be completed in mid-Jan 2025.Such return may not be attractive considering the uncertainties behind the deal. </li>
<li>If investors are optimistic about Baosteel's final acquisition of CPMC, they can consider buying Baosteel shares, as Baosteel will become the new industry leader, with greater upside potential for valuation.</li>
</ul>


Baosteel's choice to maintain its original Offer may partly reflect its "confidence" in the deal. If investors bet that Huarui Offer will succeed, they need to bear some risks.
If investors choose to arbitrage at HK$7.21/share, annualized return is 9% assuming privatization would be completed in mid-Jan 2025.Such return may not be attractive considering the uncertainties behind the deal. 
If investors are optimistic about Baosteel's final acquisition of CPMC, they can consider buying Baosteel shares, as Baosteel will become the new industry leader, with greater upside potential for valuation.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update- Due to Risk Behind ORG's Offer, Baosteel Is a Wiser Bet

China

CPMC Holdings Ltd. manufactures food packaging products.

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CPMC Holdings (906 HK)

CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG's Offer

SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator. Clearance is positive for ORG. Assuming mid-late Jan 2025 payment this is trading at a gross...

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas