HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.</li>
<li>The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG's going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. </li>
<li>ORG's acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of "building strong alliances between SOEs". In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.</li>
</ul>


Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.
The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG's going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. 
ORG's acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of "building strong alliances between SOEs". In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update - The Story Behind the Delay of Offer Document Despatch

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.</li>
<li>Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial's offer on all but bar one trading day</li>
<li>Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).</li>
</ul>


On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.
Since ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial's offer on all but bar one trading day
Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Decisions, Decisions as Changping Industrial’s Offer Set to Open

<ul>
<li>ORG purchased 27% of CPMC's shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel's Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.</li>
<li>Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time - There may have been some "tacit agreement" between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.</li>
<li>For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.</li>
</ul>


ORG purchased 27% of CPMC's shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel's Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time - There may have been some "tacit agreement" between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization - Some New Information Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. </li>
<li>ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.</li>
<li>For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. </li>
</ul>


Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. 
ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.
For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. 


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. </li>
<li>Baowu's subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosteel-packaging-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25102:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)</a> needs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.</li>
<li>At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. </li>
</ul>


With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. 
Baowu's subsidiary Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH) needs CPMC Holdings (906 HK) more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.
At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

China

CPMC Holdings Ltd. manufactures food packaging products.

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CPMC Holdings (906 HK)