Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.</li>
<li>If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.</li>
</ul>


South Korea’s largest e-commerce company, Coupang (CPNG US) sank around 20% leading up to 4Q22 earnings. It dropped another 9% soon after the earnings report to around $14.0 per ADS.
Meanwhile, the valuation remains expensive compared to regional peers as Coupang is trading at an 80% premium to the second most expensive e-commerce name in the region.
If the share price breaks the trend line here, we think shares could go on to fall below the last year’s bottom of $8.98 per ADS.


Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Coupang reported C4Q22 total revenue missed our est. and cons. by (5%) and (2%). Net income missed our est. by (9%) and beat cons. by 18%. </li>
<li>We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics.</li>
<li>We trimmed our 2023 total revenue growth est. by (4%) and raise net income est. by 9% for operating efficiency improvement. Maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Coupang reported C4Q22 total revenue missed our est. and cons. by (5%) and (2%). Net income missed our est. by (9%) and beat cons. by 18%. 
We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics.
We trimmed our 2023 total revenue growth est. by (4%) and raise net income est. by 9% for operating efficiency improvement. Maintain BUY.


[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>We first check whether additional cost savings have been achieved in the center and whether there has been any deterioration in short-term liquidity due to the hasty pursuit of automation.</li>
<li>Then, we check the soundness of new businesses such as quick commerce, which boasts delivery within 30 minutes but carries the risk of deteriorating short-term profitability.</li>
<li>Lastly, we check how seriously Coupang's real estate cost structure has deteriorated and assess the risk that this could lead to devaluation by potentially undermining Coupang's growth premium.</li>
</ul>


We first check whether additional cost savings have been achieved in the center and whether there has been any deterioration in short-term liquidity due to the hasty pursuit of automation.
Then, we check the soundness of new businesses such as quick commerce, which boasts delivery within 30 minutes but carries the risk of deteriorating short-term profitability.
Lastly, we check how seriously Coupang's real estate cost structure has deteriorated and assess the risk that this could lead to devaluation by potentially undermining Coupang's growth premium.


What to Check at Coupang Earnings Call Tomorrow

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The local media mentioned that the preliminary book building results of the Oasis IPO were terrible. </li>
<li>Therefore, the company is likely to either materially lower the IPO price range or postpone the IPO altogether.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is target price of 24,847 won per share, which is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. </li>
</ul>


The local media mentioned that the preliminary book building results of the Oasis IPO were terrible. 
Therefore, the company is likely to either materially lower the IPO price range or postpone the IPO altogether.
Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is target price of 24,847 won per share, which is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 


Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Coupang’s 4Q22’s revenue is in-line while non-GAAP net income beats cons by 29% because of the continuous cost-saving methods. </li>
<li>We cut Coupang’s TP from US$22 to US$19 because of several challenges in 2023, including inflation, barriers in international expansion, and difficulty in growth.</li>
<li>Yet, our TP is still 17% above current price, so we upgrade Coupang’s rating to BUY to reflect its advantages in competitive landscape, and margin expansions.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Coupang’s 4Q22’s revenue is in-line while non-GAAP net income beats cons by 29% because of the continuous cost-saving methods. 
We cut Coupang’s TP from US$22 to US$19 because of several challenges in 2023, including inflation, barriers in international expansion, and difficulty in growth.
Yet, our TP is still 17% above current price, so we upgrade Coupang’s rating to BUY to reflect its advantages in competitive landscape, and margin expansions.


Coupang(CPNG US) Rating Change: Margin Still Has Upside, Upgrade to BUY

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

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Coupang (CPNG US)

Coupang: Revenue & Profits Let Coupang Down, Valuation Is Still at a Significant Premium to Peers

Being one of the very first e-commerce companies in the region to cut costs to ensure long-term survival, Coupang has managed to break even in the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Coupang Inc. (CPNG US) Earnings Review]: Upsides Ahead in Category and Margin Expansion

We see upsides in margin due to change in product mix, higher contribution in ads, and optimization in logistics. Maintain BUY and TP of US$19,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What to Check at Coupang Earnings Call Tomorrow

This post discusses explicitly which points we must check at Coupang's Q4 earnings call tomorrow, particularly concerning Coupang's mysterious...

Sanghyun Park

Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results

The local media mentioned that the preliminary book building results of the Oasis IPO were terrible. Oasis is likely to either materially lower the...

Douglas Kim

Coupang(CPNG US) Rating Change: Margin Still Has Upside, Upgrade to BUY

We upgrade Coupang’s rating to BUY to reflect its advantages in competitive landscape, and margin expansions. We estimate that Coupang’s 4Q22’s non...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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