IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (LINK HK)</a> is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis was the leading technology solution providers in China with a 20.6% market share of supply chain finance transactions processed in 2020, according to CIC. Linklogis is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, CITIC Capital, GIC and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>. Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-ipo-initiation-isupply" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47017" rel="noopener">Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply</a>, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In this note, we examine the 2020 results and recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. Overall, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive.  </p></div>

Linklogis (LINK HK) is a leading technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China. Its solutions optimise the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis was the leading technology solution providers in China with a 20.6% market share of supply chain finance transactions processed in 2020, according to CIC. Linklogis is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), CITIC Capital, GIC and Standard Chartered (STAN LN). Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports.In Linklogis IPO Initiation: ISupply, we stated that Linklogis is an attractive play on China’s supply chain finance market by combining a sensible monetisation model, high customer retention rate (good revenue visibility) and strong operating leverage. In this note, we examine the 2020 results and recent developments disclosed in the PHIP. Overall, we continue to believe that Linklogis’ fundamentals are attractive.  

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The Nikkei reported on Monday (08<sup>th</sup> March 2021) that the Japanese electronics maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>  is set to acquire Blue Yonder, a leader in the US supply chain software market for JPY700bn (approx. US$6.5bn). Blue Yonder is mainly focused on supply chain management and Panasonic in May 2020 bought a 20% stake in the former for about JPY86bn.</p><p>Panasonic is said to be in the final stages of purchasing the rest of Blue Yonder’s shares from its other shareholders that include Blackstone Group and New Mountain Capital. If completed, the deal would mark Panasonic’s largest M&amp;A since 2011 where it spent JPY800bn on making Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works wholly owned subsidiaries.</p>

The Nikkei reported on Monday (08th March 2021) that the Japanese electronics maker Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)  is set to acquire Blue Yonder, a leader in the US supply chain software market for JPY700bn (approx. US$6.5bn). Blue Yonder is mainly focused on supply chain management and Panasonic in May 2020 bought a 20% stake in the former for about JPY86bn.Panasonic is said to be in the final stages of purchasing the rest of Blue Yonder’s shares from its other shareholders that include Blackstone Group and New Mountain Capital. If completed, the deal would mark Panasonic’s largest M&amp;A since 2011 where it spent JPY800bn on making Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works wholly owned subsidiaries.

Panasonic in Talks to Buy Blue Yonder; Supply Chain Management Likely to Be a Key Growth Driver

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As a reminder, we advocated buying Coupa around the bottom back in early April as it was a good entry point for a permanently expensive Adobe/ServiceNow like compounder (15x back then). We decided to step to the sidelines last quarter as the company didn’t offer much new disclosures around Pay and an oddly conservative guidance for this quarter….which not so shockingly they blew out. This quarters’ guidance for 4Q21 is equally conservative, and if you strip out its Llamasoft acquisition, you get the same sandbagged guidance as last quarter.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

As a reminder, we advocated buying Coupa around the bottom back in early April as it was a good entry point for a permanently expensive Adobe/ServiceNow like compounder (15x back then). We decided to step to the sidelines last quarter as the company didn’t offer much new disclosures around Pay and an oddly conservative guidance for this quarter….which not so shockingly they blew out. This quarters’ guidance for 4Q21 is equally conservative, and if you strip out its Llamasoft acquisition, you get the same sandbagged guidance as last quarter.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coupa 3Q21 Earnings: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus Co Ltd (3923 JP)</a>  operates a cloud-based Business Spend Management (BSM) service that helps companies and employees efficiently track and settle expenses. The expense management software, </span><em><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Raku </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Raku</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> Seisan</span></em><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">, helps enterprises to enhance productivity, compliance, and control overspending. <br><br>The recent quarterly results confirm that top line growth continues unabated. Given the market for BSM is potentially huge in Japan and currently underpenetrated, Rakus should continue to see a strong growth trajectory in the foreseeable future. </span> </p><p>This note looks at the strong Q2 results, while the following note looks at the Market, Moat and Management: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-growth-rakus-3923-sayonara-manual-expenses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44162" rel="noopener">Small Cap Growth: Rakus (3923) - Sayonara Manual Expenses!</a> </p>

Rakus Co Ltd (3923 JP)  operates a cloud-based Business Spend Management (BSM) service that helps companies and employees efficiently track and settle expenses. The expense management software, Raku Raku Seisan, helps enterprises to enhance productivity, compliance, and control overspending.   The recent quarterly results confirm that top line growth continues unabated. Given the market for BSM is potentially huge in Japan and currently underpenetrated, Rakus should continue to see a strong growth trajectory in the foreseeable future.  This note looks at the strong Q2 results, while the following note looks at the Market, Moat and Management: Small Cap Growth: Rakus (3923) - Sayonara Manual Expenses! 

Small Cap Growth: Rakus (3923) - Q2 Sales +28%

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<p>We've looked into many IPOs over the last 20 years, and think Snowflake is one of the better ones we've come across. Its architectural competitive advantages vs. legacy data warehouse providers are simply insurmountable, and while the cloud platforms loom as eventual rivals, we think this management team knows how to carve out a defensible place amongst the cloud titans.</p>
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<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
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We've looked into many IPOs over the last 20 years, and think Snowflake is one of the better ones we've come across. Its architectural competitive advantages vs. legacy data warehouse providers are simply insurmountable, and while the cloud platforms loom as eventual rivals, we think this management team knows how to carve out a defensible place amongst the cloud titans.




Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.




United States

Coupa Software Incorporated designs and develops software solutions. The Company offers procurement and expense management software to engineering, government, education, health care, retail, and staffing industries. Coupa Software serves customers around the world.

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Coupa Software (COUP US)

Linklogis IPO: Every Little Helps

Linklogis has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise as much as $1 billion, according to press reports. The PHIP which discloses the 2020...

Arun George

Panasonic in Talks to Buy Blue Yonder; Supply Chain Management Likely to Be a Key Growth Driver

The acquisition of Blue Yonder should help Panasonic transform away from its hardware business into a recurring revenue mode such as its consumer...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Coupa 3Q21 Earnings: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

A great quarter vs. a overly conservative guide...and another overly conservative guide. We are long biased but at 40x forward sales for 11%...

Aaron Gabin

Small Cap Growth: Rakus (3923) - Q2 Sales +28%

Rakus helps Japanese firms and employees to track and settle expenses. Focused on smaller companies, there is a huge TAM which is under penetrated....

Mark Chadwick

Snowflake: Making It Rain

We've looked into many IPOs over the last 20 years, and think Our investment philosophy attracts us to investing behind THE major secular trend in...

Aaron Gabin

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