Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in "y." It is a thing recently. </li>
<li>Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a> at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.</li>
<li>I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There's another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.</li>
</ul>


Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in "y." It is a thing recently. 
Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There's another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.


Kaonavi (4435 JP) - Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 - $5 bn in market capitalization).</li>
<li>28 stocks are on our list - 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.</li>
</ul>


Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 - $5 bn in market capitalization).
28 stocks are on our list - 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.
Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents, adjusted every year in August.</li>
<li>We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month for the next rebal, based on most recent trading data. </li>
<li>Every month we provide trade suggestions. The last three months have seen market-neutral returns of +3.0%, +6.5%, +3.2% respectively for the one-month periods. A new trade is suggested below.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents, adjusted every year in August.
We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month for the next rebal, based on most recent trading data. 
Every month we provide trade suggestions. The last three months have seen market-neutral returns of +3.0%, +6.5%, +3.2% respectively for the one-month periods. A new trade is suggested below.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Mar 2024 Estimates and Another Trade Reco

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-February 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-February 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Feb 2024 Estimates

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Market Watch: Topix ended the week unchanged. The yen was the bigger story after strengthening to Y147/$. Forex likely to dominate next week</li>
<li>Major Movers: CyberAgent was boosted by the release of a new #1 smartphone game; Panasonic gains after announcing potential restructuring of group assets</li>
<li>Activist Watch: Dalton’s Nippon Active Value fund has found a deep value, small-cap pharma company. Rheos Capital takes a significant stake in a fast-growing M&amp;A advisor</li>
</ul>


Market Watch: Topix ended the week unchanged. The yen was the bigger story after strengthening to Y147/$. Forex likely to dominate next week
Major Movers: CyberAgent was boosted by the release of a new #1 smartphone game; Panasonic gains after announcing potential restructuring of group assets
Activist Watch: Dalton’s Nippon Active Value fund has found a deep value, small-cap pharma company. Rheos Capital takes a significant stake in a fast-growing M&amp;A advisor


Japan Weekly | All About Yen; Panasonic, Cyberagent

Japan

Rakus Co.,Ltd. provides cloud service and IT engineer temp service. The Company also provides rental server services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Rakus Co Ltd (3923 JP)

Kaonavi (4435 JP) - Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

Carlyle launches a 121% premium tender offer on a smallcap growth co. The co-CEO is selling out. Recruit too. This is a future bolt-on for Carlyle.

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders

We identify 28 inexpensive consistent compounders among the Asian small and mid-cap stocks. Onshore China (18) and India (5) dominate the list, as...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Mar 2024 Estimates and Another Trade Reco

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The high conviction DELs basket...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Feb 2024 Estimates

Since 31st January 2024, the SHORTs have underperformed the index by 6.5%. I suggest unwinding this trade and changing the focus towards the high...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Weekly | All About Yen; Panasonic, Cyberagent

Market Watch: Topix unchanged, yen strengthens. CyberAgent boosted by new smartphone game, Panasonic gains on potential restructuring. Activist...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kaonavi (4435 JP) - Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle

Carlyle launches a 121% premium tender offer on a smallcap growth co. The co-CEO is selling out. Recruit too. This is a future bolt-on for Carlyle.

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: The SMID Compounders

We identify 28 inexpensive consistent compounders among the Asian small and mid-cap stocks. Onshore China (18) and India (5) dominate the list, as...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Mar 2024 Estimates and Another Trade Reco

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The high conviction DELs basket...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Feb 2024 Estimates

Since 31st January 2024, the SHORTs have underperformed the index by 6.5%. I suggest unwinding this trade and changing the focus towards the high...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Weekly | All About Yen; Panasonic, Cyberagent

​Market Watch: Topix unchanged, yen strengthens. CyberAgent boosted by new smartphone game, Panasonic gains on potential restructuring. Activist...

Mark Chadwick

Market Watch: Topix unchanged, yen strengthens. CyberAgent boosted by new smartphone game, Panasonic gains on potential restructuring. Activist...