Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPEED's July revenue amounted to NTD 601 million,  up 159% YoY </li>
<li>ASPEED's YTD revenue of NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY</li>
<li>This bodes well for H224 server shipments, both general purpose and AI accelerated and should be reflected in NVIDIA's earnings/outlook scheduled for August 28</li>
</ul>


ASPEED's July revenue amounted to NTD 601 million,  up 159% YoY 
ASPEED's YTD revenue of NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY
This bodes well for H224 server shipments, both general purpose and AI accelerated and should be reflected in NVIDIA's earnings/outlook scheduled for August 28


ASPEED's 159% July Revenue YoY Growth Bodes Well For H224 AI Server Shipments

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

<ul>
<li>ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May</li>
<li>Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all &gt; 30% YoY revenue growth in May</li>
<li>TSMC looking likely to exceed 30% YoY revenue growth in 2024</li>
</ul>


ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May
Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all &gt; 30% YoY revenue growth in May
TSMC looking likely to exceed 30% YoY revenue growth in 2024


Taiwan Semis May '24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board

<ul>
<li>Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time</li>
<li>Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter </li>
<li>We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter 
We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. 


Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

<ul>
<li>It's probably not a good idea to chase the AI mania surge by buying the likes of NVIDIA, AMD, Micron etc at their currently highly elevated share prices</li>
<li>Taiwan has a large ecosystem of semiconductor companies many of which are critical to the AI hardware supply chain</li>
<li>We present a range of options with exposure to AI hardware for your consideration including foundry, fabless IC design, server BMC &amp; Copper Clad Laminate</li>
</ul>


It's probably not a good idea to chase the AI mania surge by buying the likes of NVIDIA, AMD, Micron etc at their currently highly elevated share prices
Taiwan has a large ecosystem of semiconductor companies many of which are critical to the AI hardware supply chain
We present a range of options with exposure to AI hardware for your consideration including foundry, fabless IC design, server BMC &amp; Copper Clad Laminate


Missed The AI Mania Surge? Here's A Few Options Still Worth Considering

Taiwan

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

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Aspeed Technology (5274 TT)

ASPEED's 159% July Revenue YoY Growth Bodes Well For H224 AI Server Shipments

ASPEED's July revenue NTD 601 million, up 159% YoY. YTD revenue NTD 2,970 million, is up 88% YoY. Bodes well for H224 server shipments & NVIDIA's...

William Keating

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semis May '24 Revenue Roundup. Looking Good Across The Board

ASPEED blazing a trail with 92.9% YoY revenue growth in May. Quanta, WiWynn, TSMC and Nanya all > 30% YoY. TSMC looking likely to hit >30% YoY...

William Keating

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

Missed The AI Mania Surge? Here's A Few Options Still Worth Considering

NVIDIA et al no longer make sense to invest in at current levels. We present a range of options with exposure to AI hardware including foundry,...

William Keating

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