Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/980/original/BANNER-BoxDec20.png?1609781008" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180980"></figure></section><p>Within container shipping space, recent share price performance suggests investors believe the benefits of the cyclical upturn will mainly accrue to carriers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>.</p><p>To maintain a positive view on container carriers in the near- and medium-term, investors must embrace several key assumptions regarding demand, supply, and fuel prices. We lay out five of these key assumptions and the risks associated with them. </p><p>We conclude that investors may not fully appreciate all the risks facing the sector in early 2021. </p>

Within container shipping space, recent share price performance suggests investors believe the benefits of the cyclical upturn will mainly accrue to carriers like Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT).To maintain a positive view on container carriers in the near- and medium-term, investors must embrace several key assumptions regarding demand, supply, and fuel prices. We lay out five of these key assumptions and the risks associated with them. We conclude that investors may not fully appreciate all the risks facing the sector in early 2021. 

The Shaky Assumptions Behind Recent Strong Performance of Asian Container Carriers

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

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<p>In the first section of this note we review key themes of the last year within our regular coverage, which includes regional Logistics, Transportation, and Travel. We also measure year to date performance of some of the individual stocks we've closely tracked in 2020. </p>
<p>The second section of this note is a list of themes and ideas we expect to drive share price performance in Asian Logistics, Transportation, and Travel over the next 12 months. It concludes with some suggested 2021 Long / Short pair trade ideas in each of these three segments. </p>
<p>The third and final section of this note highlights several potential high-profile IPOs in the broader Asian Logistics space. Most of these potential deals are linked to large, well-known Chinese eCommerce fulfillment and "mobility" companies. </p>




In the first section of this note we review key themes of the last year within our regular coverage, which includes regional Logistics, Transportation, and Travel. We also measure year to date performance of some of the individual stocks we've closely tracked in 2020. 
The second section of this note is a list of themes and ideas we expect to drive share price performance in Asian Logistics, Transportation, and Travel over the next 12 months. It concludes with some suggested 2021 Long / Short pair trade ideas in each of these three segments. 
The third and final section of this note highlights several potential high-profile IPOs in the broader Asian Logistics space. Most of these potential deals are linked to large, well-known Chinese eCommerce fulfillment and "mobility" companies. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/ 2020 Review | 2021 Preview | Potential IPOs in Logistics, Transportation & Travel

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/836/original/BANNER-CARGO.png?1608075975" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178836"></figure></section><p>Strong North American imports continued in November, and it appears the usual peak season may be stretching into mid-December and even January. Average freight rates in November -- spot and contract combined --  rose by about 13% YoY for a second consecutive month. </p><p>But bunker (fuel) prices are also up compared to earlier in 2020. A spike in fuel prices in Q420 will likely eat into the nice gains in profitability shown by many carriers in Q220 and Q320. </p><p>Shares of carriers have performed very well after bottoming in the first half of the year, but in our view valuations now look stretched. Betting on further gains after these stocks have doubled and tripled over the course of a few months is very risky, in our view. </p>

Strong North American imports continued in November, and it appears the usual peak season may be stretching into mid-December and even January. Average freight rates in November -- spot and contract combined --  rose by about 13% YoY for a second consecutive month. But bunker (fuel) prices are also up compared to earlier in 2020. A spike in fuel prices in Q420 will likely eat into the nice gains in profitability shown by many carriers in Q220 and Q320. Shares of carriers have performed very well after bottoming in the first half of the year, but in our view valuations now look stretched. Betting on further gains after these stocks have doubled and tripled over the course of a few months is very risky, in our view. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Volumes, Rates & Bunker All Firmer | Valuations Get Weird

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/990/original/BANNER-CARGO.png?1605979844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172990"></figure></section><p>Average container rates popped in October, up almost 14% YoY according to our proprietary model. Container volumes out of Asia and into the North American West coast remained firm, too.</p><p>Carriers (and their customers) have once again begun complaining about a shortage of containers at key origins in Asia. We believe this equipment shortage also supports firmer container rates.</p><p>Firming rates and volumes, combined with relatively low fuel prices, are delivering a surprisingly good year to container carriers, Covid19 be damned. But we feel most of the good news has been reflected in share prices, many of which have more than doubled from lows in H1 2020. </p>

Average container rates popped in October, up almost 14% YoY according to our proprietary model. Container volumes out of Asia and into the North American West coast remained firm, too.Carriers (and their customers) have once again begun complaining about a shortage of containers at key origins in Asia. We believe this equipment shortage also supports firmer container rates.Firming rates and volumes, combined with relatively low fuel prices, are delivering a surprisingly good year to container carriers, Covid19 be damned. But we feel most of the good news has been reflected in share prices, many of which have more than doubled from lows in H1 2020. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: October Rates Pop | LA Volumes Strong | Box Shortage?

<p>Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. </p>
<p>Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hapag-lloyd-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21649:1" rel="noopener">Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)</a> lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. </p>
<p>After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. </p>
<p>While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us. </p>

Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. 
Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR) lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. 
After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. 
While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Box Rates Firm | LA Down in Nov? | Air Cargo Pricing Eases

Hong Kong

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

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Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)

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Volumes and average freight rates firmed again in November, but so did fuel prices. Many shares of container carriers also jumped (again) this...

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Container rates rose again in October, and fuel costs remain low. Although carriers likely continue to enjoy solid profitability, we believe shares...

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Container volumes and pricing firmed in September, and fuel prices remain relatively low, but trading conditions are unlikely to improve much from...

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