Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Banking / Cover Story: 2008 Redux? SVB collapse raises questions about banking oversight</li><li>Research / China launches campaign to tackle pressing domestic challenges</li><li>Taiwan / Beijing welcomes ex-Taiwan leader’s visit to the mainland</li></ul>

Banking / Cover Story: 2008 Redux? SVB collapse raises questions about banking oversightResearch / China launches campaign to tackle pressing domestic challengesTaiwan / Beijing welcomes ex-Taiwan leader’s visit to the mainland

CX Daily: 2008 Redux? SVB Collapse Raises Questions About Banking Oversight

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

<ul>
<li>
In Depth: Indonesian sovereign wealth fund’s blueprint for growth 
</li>
<li>
Shanghai plans to build $221 million permanent quarantine center on island
</li>
<li>
Communist Party appoints new head of publicity department
</li>
</ul>



In Depth: Indonesian sovereign wealth fund’s blueprint for growth 


Shanghai plans to build $221 million permanent quarantine center on island


Communist Party appoints new head of publicity department



CX Daily: Indonesian Sovereign Wealth Fund’s Blueprint for Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Xiamen International Port H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. 


Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

Hong Kong

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

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Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

CX Daily: 2008 Redux? SVB Collapse Raises Questions About Banking Oversight

Cover Story: 2008 Redux? SVB collapse raises questions about banking oversight. China launches campaign to tackle pressing domestic challenges.

Caixin Global

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Indonesian Sovereign Wealth Fund’s Blueprint for Growth

In Depth: Indonesian sovereign wealth fund’s blueprint for growth. Shanghai plans to build $221 million permanent quarantine center on island

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

CX Daily: 2008 Redux? SVB Collapse Raises Questions About Banking Oversight

Cover Story: 2008 Redux? SVB collapse raises questions about banking oversight. China launches campaign to tackle pressing domestic challenges.

Caixin Global

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Indonesian Sovereign Wealth Fund’s Blueprint for Growth

In Depth: Indonesian sovereign wealth fund’s blueprint for growth. Shanghai plans to build $221 million permanent quarantine center on island

Caixin Global

Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

This is a done deal. At the last close price of HK$2.23 per H Share and for a 6 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 7.6%.

Arun George