Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Volumes, Rates & Bunker All Firmer | Valuations Get Weird

ZIM at IPO Price Range Looks Reasonable Vs Peers, But Should Investors Add Container Exposure Now?

The Shaky Assumptions Behind Recent Strong Performance of Asian Container Carriers

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/768/original/BANNER-BoxDec20.png?1610728156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182768"></figure></section>[Review rates, volume growth (both strong, again), but note some cracks: US weak retail sales in December vs expectations, rising fuel costs, these threaten positive narrative]Wondering about spot container rates versus "achieved" rates? The three Taiwanese carriers show us why spot exposure, not spot rates, is the key determinant of monthly sales momentum. Fuel prices continue to rise and are now over 60% higher than they were in April 2020. High and rising fuel prices pose a threat to container carrier profitability in the near-term, in our view. We also offer brief notes on ZIM's planned IPO and weak US retail sales in December. We conclude by highlighting YTD share performance and current Price-to-book valuations close to 2.0 times.

[Review rates, volume growth (both strong, again), but note some cracks: US weak retail sales in December vs expectations, rising fuel costs, these threaten positive narrative]Wondering about spot container rates versus "achieved" rates? The three Taiwanese carriers show us why spot exposure, not spot rates, is the key determinant of monthly sales momentum. Fuel prices continue to rise and are now over 60% higher than they were in April 2020. High and rising fuel prices pose a threat to container carrier profitability in the near-term, in our view. We also offer brief notes on ZIM's planned IPO and weak US retail sales in December. We conclude by highlighting YTD share performance and current Price-to-book valuations close to 2.0 times.

China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Spot Vs 'Achieved' Rates | Fuel Prices Up | US Retail Weak

Evergreen Marine Corp

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Spot Vs 'Achieved' Rates | Fuel Prices Up | US Retail Weak