Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/URWTG," target="_blank" rel="noopener">More Hong Kong Stocks Priced For Liquidation</a>, I flagged thirteen stocks the market is all-but implying are priced for liquidation. </li>
<li>One of the cut-off points in that analysis was a requirement for stocks to trade at least US$1mn/day. Removing that constraint uncovers shipping services play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-international-8a9750d4-23c7-4832-9b67-2032ca7ec1f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:672:1" rel="noopener">COSCO International Holdings (517 HK)</a> (CSI).</li>
<li>CSI's market cap accounts for ~86% of its 1H23 net cash position. Earlier this month, CSI announced another positive profit warning. Those numbers should be out late-March.</li>
</ul>


In More Hong Kong Stocks Priced For Liquidation, I flagged thirteen stocks the market is all-but implying are priced for liquidation. 
One of the cut-off points in that analysis was a requirement for stocks to trade at least US$1mn/day. Removing that constraint uncovers shipping services play COSCO International Holdings (517 HK) (CSI).
CSI's market cap accounts for ~86% of its 1H23 net cash position. Earlier this month, CSI announced another positive profit warning. Those numbers should be out late-March.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$145m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.</li>
<li>In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss peers and share our thoughts on valuation. </li>
</ul>



T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise US$145m in its Hong Kong IPO.
T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss peers and share our thoughts on valuation. 


TS Lines IPO - Smaller than Peers, Although Valuation Seems Attractive

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (000333 CH)</a> has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.</li>
<li>Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.</li>
<li>The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that Midea Group (000333 CH) has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.
Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.
The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.


Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

<ul>
<li>The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group</a>. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> too.</li>
</ul>


The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to Midea Group. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.
Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.
Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) too.


Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Hong Kong

COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. provides shipping related services. The Company offers shipping, logistics, shipbuilding and ship repair services, ship trading agency services, marine insurance brokerage services, marine equipment and spare parts, coating products, and marine fuel and other related shipping products. COSCO International serves clients around the world.

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Cosco International Holdings (517 HK)

COSCO Shipping (517 HK) Is Still Cheap

Despite a 42% gain yoy, CSI remains a deep value name. If you are a long-only investor, I'd get involved here and on any material dips.

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

TS Lines IPO - Smaller than Peers, Although Valuation Seems Attractive

T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise US$145m in its Hong Kong IPO. In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note,...

Clarence Chu

Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

Midea Group (300 HK) lists today. There could be investors switching from the A-shares to the H-shares. Index Fast Entry for the H-shares will...

Brian Freitas

Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group is offering the H-shares at a 20.9-25% discount to the A-shares and is expected to list on 17 Sep. The H-shares could get Fast Entry to...

Brian Freitas

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