Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Midea debuted on HKEx on 17th September and shares last closed at HK$74.25 per share, up by about 35% compared to final HK offer price of HK$54.80 apiece.</li>
<li>We previously suggested that Midea’s HK offering was attractive as HK shares were priced at a 25% discount to its A-shares, and was at a discount to Haier Smart Homes.</li>
<li>The PBOC announced several measures to revive the housing market in the country which contributed to the recent rally in the China home appliance sector.</li>
</ul>


Midea debuted on HKEx on 17th September and shares last closed at HK$74.25 per share, up by about 35% compared to final HK offer price of HK$54.80 apiece.
We previously suggested that Midea’s HK offering was attractive as HK shares were priced at a 25% discount to its A-shares, and was at a discount to Haier Smart Homes.
The PBOC announced several measures to revive the housing market in the country which contributed to the recent rally in the China home appliance sector.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.0% as of Jan 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.1ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, utilities, materials and offset by consumer staples, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 95.0% as of Jan 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.1ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, utilities, materials and offset by consumer staples, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.</li>
<li>The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.</li>
<li>If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea's performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.</li>
</ul>


For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.
The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.
If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea's performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.


Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share - Here Are the Risks Behind

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>We would subscribe to the HK offering of Midea Group due to its attractive valuations, strong fundamentals, and meaningful price discount relative to the A shares. </li>
<li>We believe a premium valuation relative to the comps is appropriate for Midea Group due to its higher sales growth, EBIT margin, and ROE.</li>
<li>Pricing of this offering is expected to be completed on 13 September and listing on 17 September. </li>
</ul>


We would subscribe to the HK offering of Midea Group due to its attractive valuations, strong fundamentals, and meaningful price discount relative to the A shares. 
We believe a premium valuation relative to the comps is appropriate for Midea Group due to its higher sales growth, EBIT margin, and ROE.
Pricing of this offering is expected to be completed on 13 September and listing on 17 September. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (000333 CH)</a> has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.</li>
<li>Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.</li>
<li>The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that Midea Group (000333 CH) has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.
Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.
The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.


Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

China

Midea Group CO., LTD manufactures, markets and installs household electrical appliances, compressors and components. Midea also provides services in information technology, corporate investment consultation, software and hardware development, property management and corporate engineering supports. Midea Group provides its products worldwide.

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Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)

Midea HK Listing: Take Profit

Midea's shares are up 35% from its HK offer price. Policy measures by PBOC to revive the housing market have led to a rally in China home appliance...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for TEC (688187 CH/3898 HK), CanSinoBIO (688185 CH/6185 HK), SD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Midea Group HK IPO Valuation Analysis

Midea Group's shares closed up 7.8% at HK$59.10 on Tuesday. This strong IPO performance in HK by the Midea Group is likely to set in motion a...

Douglas Kim

Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

Midea Group (300 HK) lists today. There could be investors switching from the A-shares to the H-shares. Index Fast Entry for the H-shares will...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Midea HK Listing: Take Profit

Midea's shares are up 35% from its HK offer price. Policy measures by PBOC to revive the housing market have led to a rally in China home appliance...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 3rd):TEC, CanSinoBIO, SD GOLD, CRRC.

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for TEC (688187 CH/3898 HK), CanSinoBIO (688185 CH/6185 HK), SD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share - Here Are the Risks Behind

During Mid Autumn Festival, home appliance chain sales was up >30% YoY after years of decline. Due to trade-ins policy, there's sharp increase in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Midea Group HK IPO Valuation Analysis

Midea Group's shares closed up 7.8% at HK$59.10 on Tuesday. This strong IPO performance in HK by the Midea Group is likely to set in motion a...

Douglas Kim

Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

Midea Group (300 HK) lists today. There could be investors switching from the A-shares to the H-shares. Index Fast Entry for the H-shares will...

Brian Freitas