Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Manufacturing Sentiment in the US continues to decline. US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low.</li><li>As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so, according to our leading indicators.</li><li>By now, there is quite a divergence in industrial production in general. We expect industrial production to crash over the next few months, which will continue to be a nasty factor for commodity demand.</li></ul>

Manufacturing Sentiment in the US continues to decline. US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low.As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so, according to our leading indicators.By now, there is quite a divergence in industrial production in general. We expect industrial production to crash over the next few months, which will continue to be a nasty factor for commodity demand.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems a bit early still.</li>
<li>Gold trendline and price pivot at 1,700 the key level to clear or will retest the 1,620 triple lows. </li>
<li>DXY to rally off of 110 support within the triangle range and will see metals pullback. Bigger picture needs a break below 109.50 (bearish) to overlay with metals.</li>
</ul>


Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems a bit early still.
Gold trendline and price pivot at 1,700 the key level to clear or will retest the 1,620 triple lows. 
DXY to rally off of 110 support within the triangle range and will see metals pullback. Bigger picture needs a break below 109.50 (bearish) to overlay with metals.


<ul><li>Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain since many industrial users will hold their own reserves of the metal.</li><li>But visible stocks can have a significant influence on sentiment in the market.</li><li>It’s just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry, yet the physical market is so tight.</li></ul>

Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain since many industrial users will hold their own reserves of the metal.But visible stocks can have a significant influence on sentiment in the market.It’s just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry, yet the physical market is so tight.

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Commodities have had a wild rally over the last two years, incentivising miners to go public amidst heightened investor enthusiasm.</li><li>Despite this, markets have slept through the announcement of Glencore’s CSA Copper Mine being spun off through a $1.1 billion SPAC merger with Metals Acquisition Corp.</li><li>The deal price implies a 4.5x multiple of 2022 EBITDA, which is a breath of fresh air in SPACland, where valuations have hovered at many multiples of sales that are three or four years out.</li></ul>

Commodities have had a wild rally over the last two years, incentivising miners to go public amidst heightened investor enthusiasm.Despite this, markets have slept through the announcement of Glencore’s CSA Copper Mine being spun off through a $1.1 billion SPAC merger with Metals Acquisition Corp.The deal price implies a 4.5x multiple of 2022 EBITDA, which is a breath of fresh air in SPACland, where valuations have hovered at many multiples of sales that are three or four years out.

Can CSA SPAC Its Way Through a Commodity Crash?

<ul><li>Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.</li><li>Getting inflation back into the target corridor will be a slow and painful process as inflation is broadly driven by the components of shelter, transportation services, medical services, and not only food and energy, which get the most headlines in the newspaper.</li><li>On the other hand, we're on the right track, as the YoY comparisons have declined since July.</li></ul>

Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.Getting inflation back into the target corridor will be a slow and painful process as inflation is broadly driven by the components of shelter, transportation services, medical services, and not only food and energy, which get the most headlines in the newspaper.On the other hand, we're on the right track, as the YoY comparisons have declined since July.

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #76

As most commodity groups are heavily correlated with the ISM data, this will provide significant headwinds over the next six months or so,...

The Commodity Report

Copper Long Needs USD to Break Lower

Copper's bull wedge b -wave breakout stands out (high conviction set up) but needs a weaker USD for follow through. China is the wildcard but seems...

Thomas Schroeder

The Commodity Report #74

Inventories of copper in warehouses run by exchanges such as the LME do not provide a complete picture of copper stocks in the supply chain

The Commodity Report

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Commodities have had a wild rally over the last two years, incentivising miners to go public amidst heightened investor enthusiasm.

subSPAC

The Commodity Report #73

Respect the trend - inflation continues to trend down but also continues to surprise on the upside in terms of analysts’ expectations.

The Commodity Report

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