Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.</li>
<li>Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.</li>
<li>Coupled with weaker supply (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.
Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 


Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Base metals, particularly copper, are sensitive to China specific tariffs, leading to a rise in copper prices in early 2025</li><li>Near term market outlook is cautious due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices potentially pulling back towards $9,000 per ton</li><li>Long term outlook for copper market tightening in 2025 due to slowing mine supply growth and modest deceleration in global demand growth, with potential risks in X Chinese demand.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Base metals, particularly copper, are sensitive to China specific tariffs, leading to a rise in copper prices in early 2025Near term market outlook is cautious due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices potentially pulling back towards $9,000 per tonLong term outlook for copper market tightening in 2025 due to slowing mine supply growth and modest deceleration in global demand growth, with potential risks in X Chinese demand.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Copper — From tariffs to tightness

<ul>
<li>Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  </li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices remained tepid last week, owing to a weak global market sentiment with Trump's tariffs. Funds cut their bullish Comex positions as premiums crashed by 40% from the peak.  
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
The NPC 2025, taking place on March 5, will be closely watched for China's fiscal policy roadmap, which is expected to influence commodity consumption.


Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.</li>
<li>Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. </li>
<li>Antofagasta's valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.</li>
</ul>



Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  delivered robust 2024 results, showcasing an 11% EBITDA increase to $3.4 billion and significantly expanded margins to 52%, exceeding many industry peers.
Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure is projected to increase to $3.9 billion (from $2.4 billion in 2024), supporting production growth to 900,000 tons (vs current 660k tons) by 2029-30. 
Antofagasta's valuation, at 27.2x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, appears elevated. Southern Copper (SCCO US), offering superior return on capital employed (ROCE), presents a more attractive investment profile.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

We highlight key drivers for the copper price that could potentially take it over 10k USD/ton in the medium term: China stimulus, copper spreads,...

Sameer Taneja

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

Global Commodities: Copper — From tariffs to tightness

Copper prices have increased but may face downward pressure due to weaker than expected Chinese demand and potential tariff risks.

At Any Rate

Copper Tracker 3rd March 2025: China TSF And PMI Rebound A Major Boost, All Eyes On the NPC

We summarize all the major drivers of the copper price over the last two weeks. With the China NPC approaching, all eyes will be on the fiscal...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): Good Set of Results, Capex Acceleration of >50%

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reported H1 an impressive set of H1 results. We summarize the presentation and our gleanings of the conference call with...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)