Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.</li>
<li>Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.</li>
<li>The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.</li>
</ul>


The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market's promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
The dollar's depreciation, Trump's flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.


Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen.</li><li>We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.</li><li>So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen.We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

<ul><li>Copper pricing reporter Han Lu, sulfuric acid reporter Ong Jialun, and China content reporter Lucy Tang share insights on copper market trends and trade flows</li><li>China copper concentrates assessments have hit negative levels in 2025 due to tight supply and growing demand from China and India</li><li>Smelters are running at production losses due to low TCRC but continue to buy in the market to meet output targets and maintain production levels</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Copper pricing reporter Han Lu, sulfuric acid reporter Ong Jialun, and China content reporter Lucy Tang share insights on copper market trends and trade flowsChina copper concentrates assessments have hit negative levels in 2025 due to tight supply and growing demand from China and IndiaSmelters are running at production losses due to low TCRC but continue to buy in the market to meet output targets and maintain production levelsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global copper markets navigate trade flow shifts and smelting challenges

<ul>
<li>Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.</li>
<li>Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.</li>
<li>Coupled with weaker supply (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices are receiving a favorable lift following the announcement of China's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" made early last week.
Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 16% YoY for Jan-Feb to 9.29 trillion RMB. Despite being below the analyst forecasts (which were revised upwards), this is a strong number.
Coupled with weaker supply (Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ), copper prices can surpass 10k USD/ton in the medium-term. 


Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

After the shocks of the Trump Tariffs which threatened to transition the world into a global recession, green shoots are emerging for copper with...

Sameer Taneja

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

Greetings from Copenhagen. We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for...

Steno Research

Global copper markets navigate trade flow shifts and smelting challenges

Key copper pricing reporter Han Lu, sulfuric acid reporter Ong Jialun, and China content reporter Lucy Tang discuss the current trends in the...

Commodities Focus

Copper Tracker 24th March 2025: China "Special Action Consumption Plan"/Comex Spreads Stratospheric

We highlight key drivers for the copper price that could potentially take it over 10k USD/ton in the medium term: China stimulus, copper spreads,...

Sameer Taneja

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

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