Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has plunged by 14% during the last month, casting an ominous cloud over the much-anticipated soft landing that investors have been hoping for.</li>
<li>The ongoing decline in commodity prices, down 26% from their peak, now suggests an implied US recession probability of 68%. </li>
<li>And in our updated US Recession Scoreboard, the recent dip in copper mirrors a somewhat elevated, yet increasing, chance of a US recession. </li>
</ul>


The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has plunged by 14% during the last month, casting an ominous cloud over the much-anticipated soft landing that investors have been hoping for.
The ongoing decline in commodity prices, down 26% from their peak, now suggests an implied US recession probability of 68%. 
And in our updated US Recession Scoreboard, the recent dip in copper mirrors a somewhat elevated, yet increasing, chance of a US recession. 


Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Silver euphoria is over In the past two weeks, I have spoken to many people who are euphoric about silver.</li><li>Many charts on Fintwit also predict that now is the time to jump back on the silver bandwagon.</li><li>I believe that the next bubble could soon run out of steam, and this is not only true for gold.</li></ul>

The Silver euphoria is over In the past two weeks, I have spoken to many people who are euphoric about silver.Many charts on Fintwit also predict that now is the time to jump back on the silver bandwagon.I believe that the next bubble could soon run out of steam, and this is not only true for gold.

The Silver euphoria is over // Why crude oil continues to fall

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>We review some charts, starting with commodities that are precariously close to signalling a breakdown.</li><li>The weakness became pronounced after China's PPI, CPI, and the disappointing Aggregate Finance data (this needs a separate section).  </li><li>If China's recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the rest of the world.</li></ul>

We review some charts, starting with commodities that are precariously close to signalling a breakdown.The weakness became pronounced after China's PPI, CPI, and the disappointing Aggregate Finance data (this needs a separate section).  If China's recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the rest of the world.

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up

The decline in industrial metal prices, particularly copper, suggests an increasing risk of a US recession and a challenging outlook for equity...

Jeroen Blokland

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

The Silver euphoria is over // Why crude oil continues to fall

The Silver euphoria is over In the past two weeks, I have spoken to many people who are euphoric about silver. Many charts on Fintwit also predict...

The Commodity Report

Commodity and FX Impulse Moves

If China's recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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