Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.</li>
<li>Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.</li>
<li>Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.
Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.
Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.


The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Commodity markets are down despite stimulatory measures from China, with oil prices falling due to increased supply from Libya and OPEC plus alliance</li><li>China's demand outlook for oil remains steady, with forecasts for oil demand growth unchanged despite stimulus measures</li><li>Base metals, particularly copper, have seen a price increase due to stronger demand impulses from China, with bullish outlook and potential upside risks for the first half of 2025</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Commodity markets are down despite stimulatory measures from China, with oil prices falling due to increased supply from Libya and OPEC plus allianceChina's demand outlook for oil remains steady, with forecasts for oil demand growth unchanged despite stimulus measuresBase metals, particularly copper, have seen a price increase due to stronger demand impulses from China, with bullish outlook and potential upside risks for the first half of 2025This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Commodities: Everything Everywhere All at once

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update!</li><li>Everything is about China these days, with both the PBoC and the Politburo preparing stimulus packages to save the Chinese economy from its nasty downturn.</li><li>While the stimulus initiatives are not very large, relatively speaking (roughly a percentage of GDP on average across stimulus packages), markets clearly see the heavy amounts of proposed stimulus as a “whatever it takes” signal, sparking a strong momentum trend in the Hang Seng and China proxies.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update!Everything is about China these days, with both the PBoC and the Politburo preparing stimulus packages to save the Chinese economy from its nasty downturn.While the stimulus initiatives are not very large, relatively speaking (roughly a percentage of GDP on average across stimulus packages), markets clearly see the heavy amounts of proposed stimulus as a “whatever it takes” signal, sparking a strong momentum trend in the Hang Seng and China proxies.

Positioning Watch – Markets Are Moving Away from the US (in FI)

<ul><li>The Chinese markets have warmly welcomed this morning’s news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) plans to introduce significant stimulus measures, surpassing market expectations.</li><li>The most notable measure involves reducing borrowing costs on up to USD 5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases.</li><li>This has brought growth back into the spotlight.</li></ul>

The Chinese markets have warmly welcomed this morning’s news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) plans to introduce significant stimulus measures, surpassing market expectations.The most notable measure involves reducing borrowing costs on up to USD 5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases.This has brought growth back into the spotlight.

The Drill: Will China move commodity markets?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities.</li><li>Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the beginning of the pandemic back in 2020.</li><li>Long commodities is now a contrarian trade again.</li></ul>

According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities.Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the beginning of the pandemic back in 2020.Long commodities is now a contrarian trade again.

Fund Managers Hate Commodities // EU Deforestation Law Disaster

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken Fade the strength in assets connected to the real...

Steno Research

Global FX and Commodities: Everything Everywhere All at once

The bazooka stimulus in China has impacted oil, ag, and gas markets, with crude oil prices dropping due to expectations of increased supply, while...

At Any Rate

Positioning Watch – Markets Are Moving Away from the US (in FI)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update!Everything is about China these days, with both the PBoC and the Politburo...

Steno Research

The Drill: Will China move commodity markets?

The Chinese markets have warmly welcomed this morning’s news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) plans to introduce significant stimulus...

Steno Research

Fund Managers Hate Commodities // EU Deforestation Law Disaster

According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, investors continue to sell commodities. Allocation-wise we’re now back at levels we were at the...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)