IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The AGM voting shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.</li>
<li>The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.
The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.
The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.3% as of Apr 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.3% as of Apr 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 28th): Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Southbound will close for 3 days due to holiday, we view it as a good time to buy the stock on short-term momentum</li>
<li>Investment thesis for CNOOC is similar to China Mobile: Strong southbound flows and A/H premium to narrow to support H share price</li>
<li>Valuation is attractive.  Potential share buybacks and trading dual counter (to narrow AH gap) are the upcoming catalysts</li>
</ul>


Southbound will close for 3 days due to holiday, we view it as a good time to buy the stock on short-term momentum
Investment thesis for CNOOC is similar to China Mobile: Strong southbound flows and A/H premium to narrow to support H share price
Valuation is attractive.  Potential share buybacks and trading dual counter (to narrow AH gap) are the upcoming catalysts


Actionable Trade: CNOOC H-Share 883HK – Strong SB Flow, A/H Prem, Low Valuation & Multiple Catalysts

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated....

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 28th): Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated....

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 28th): Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Actionable Trade: CNOOC H-Share 883HK – Strong SB Flow, A/H Prem, Low Valuation & Multiple Catalysts

This insight aims to ride the short-term momentum of CNOOC H-share 883 HK. Investment thesis includes: Strong southbound flow, A/H premium,...

Jacob Cheng